Is Nancy Guthrie Still Alive? What Officials, Experts and the Evidence Actually Say Nearly Eight Months Later

TUCSON, Ariz. — Nearly eight months after 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie vanished from her home near Tucson, no official or expert has offered a probability that she is alive, and investigators have not declared her dead. What exists publicly is a set of facts about her health, a disputed ransom note and differing views from the sheriff leading the case and from a former FBI agent.

Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, was last seen at her Catalina Foothills home on the night of January 31 and was reported missing the next day. Authorities believe she was taken against her will. "It does look like to us, she was taken from that house against her will in the middle of the night," Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told ABC News. Nanos confirmed that blood found on the exterior porch matched her DNA, Yahoo News reported. Her cellphone and an Apple Watch that had been disconnected from her pacemaker were left behind, along with heart medication that Nanos said she needs to survive.

Her health is central to any assessment. A sheriff's dispatcher said during the early search that Guthrie has high blood pressure, a pacemaker and heart issues. Nanos described her as "sharp as a tack" but said she has medical conditions that could become fatal without vital medications, according to Yahoo News. FBI Special Agent Heath Janke said in early February that she is "an 84-year-old grandma that needs vital medication for her wellbeing." He appealed to anyone involved: "You still have time to do the right thing before this becomes a much worse scenario."

The most direct claim about her fate comes from ransom notes sent to a Tucson television station. The first, dated February 2, demanded $4 million to $6 million in bitcoin and threatened to kill her if a Monday deadline passed. The second note, addressed to the family, claimed she had died shortly after being taken, presumably from a heart attack, AZPM reported. The sheriff's department released both notes on July 31, the six-month anniversary of her disappearance, saying they "purport to have been written by kidnappers," The Hollywood Reporter reported. The department has asked the public to help identify the writer. The authenticity of the notes has not been confirmed. Janke said the ransom messages did not include proof of life, and the FBI arrested a California man in connection with sending an impostor ransom demand.

The family asked repeatedly for proof that Guthrie was alive. "We need to know without a doubt that she is alive and that you have her," Savannah Guthrie said in a video statement in February. No such proof has been made public.

Officials have publicly held on to hope. "You have no proof, nobody does, that she's not [alive]," Nanos told Fox 10 when she had been missing 18 days. "I'm going to have that faith. Sometimes that hope is all we have." Earlier, he said, "Right now, we believe Nancy is still out there." After the ransom notes were released, he told CBS News the department would keep working the case regardless of how long it takes. "This one's far from being cold, and we'll continue to work it," he said.

Outside experts are more guarded. Harry Trombitas, a former FBI special agent, told Yahoo that Guthrie's age, her physical condition when she was taken and the time that has passed "just makes me really skeptical that she's still alive." He added a caveat that reflects how investigators typically talk about such cases. "As an investigator, I wouldn't give up, and I know the family's not given up that she's still alive," Trombitas said. "Our goal as investigators is to bring her back fully alive, but if not, at least be able to bring her body back to her family so that they have closure." That is an individual opinion, not a finding by the investigation.

On the evidence, the picture remains incomplete. Nanos told CBS News that tests on a hair sample from the home came back inconclusive and that blood and other DNA being processed had not yielded results at that point. The FBI has been analyzing mixed DNA found at the home, Yahoo reported. Nanos said he believes the suspects could be local to the Tucson area. Investigators have said they have received roughly 40,000 to 50,000 tips, no suspect has been publicly identified, and Nanos has said the Guthrie family, including siblings and their spouses, has been cleared. Human remains discovered in a desert area about 15 miles from her home in August were said by authorities to have been at the location for an extended period and not connected to her disappearance. The FBI has offered a reward of up to $100,000 and the family $1 million, according to CBS News.

The family has not given up. In a video in February, Savannah Guthrie said, "It's been two weeks since our mom was taken. And I just wanted to come on and say that we still have hope. And we still believe." At the six-month mark, she posted a statement saying the family was "desperate" and "begging for help," and added, "We are real people, facing real grief."

Taken together, the record supports only a cautious statement. Guthrie has a heart condition and a pacemaker, left essential medication behind and has been missing for nearly eight months, and a ransom note of unconfirmed origin says she died. At the same time, authorities have not found a body, have not confirmed the note, and continue to describe her as a missing person. Anyone offering a specific percentage would be speculating, and the sheriff's own public position has been one of hope.

Investigators are asking anyone with information to call the FBI tip line at 1-800-CALL-FBI.