'Super' El Niño Could Trigger Severe Global Food Price Shock Lasting Into 2028, Economists Warn

Economists are warning that a potentially historic "super" El Niño weather cycle developing this year could trigger a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028, compounding inflation already stoked by the ongoing war between the United States and Iran.

As the Iran conflict pushes world food prices to their highest level in three years, economists say global supply chains are facing what amounts to two simultaneous shocks: one driven by war-related disruption to shipping and fertilizer supplies, and another driven by extreme weather linked to a rapidly intensifying climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean.

Scientists say the developing 2026-27 El Niño, which forms when shifting wind patterns allow warmer water to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, has a historically unusual chance of becoming a "very strong" event capable of fueling heatwaves, flooding and more intense storm activity worldwide. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed last month that warming conditions were taking hold in the Pacific, with NOAA placing a 96% probability on full El Niño conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. Some forecasting models have projected sea surface temperature anomalies in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring region climbing beyond 4 degrees Celsius above average by November, a level that would place the event among the strongest ever recorded, alongside a small handful of comparable episodes since 1950, including 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24.

Informally described as a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño, the pattern is not an official meteorological classification but has been widely adopted this year by forecasters and analysts to describe the unusual strength of the event now developing. A "super" El Niño is generally defined by sea surface temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above baseline, a threshold current model runs suggest could be nearly doubled in the most extreme scenarios.

Analysts at investment firm Schroders have warned that the confluence of a strong El Niño with existing fertilizer supply disruption tied to the Iran war could push next year's global food inflation into double digits. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor, has had a significant impact on global fertilizer supply, since roughly a third of the world's urea originates from the region and is typically shipped through the strait. Urea prices have doubled since the conflict began, according to Schroders, implying a sharp increase in the price of grains and other nutrient-intensive crops going forward. The firm has modeled a scenario in which the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index could rise 50% by year-end, an outcome that would likely push G7 food inflation into double digits by 2027 given typical lags in how commodity price increases work through to consumer prices.

El Niño's agricultural impact is rarely confined to a single region, since the pattern shifts rainfall and temperature simultaneously across multiple major food-producing areas. The event typically brings weaker monsoon rains and above-normal heat to South Asia's growing regions, while West Africa faces an elevated risk of drier conditions that could hurt cocoa production. Australian wheat production could fall by as much as 9 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season due to a sharply reduced planted area, according to Schroders' analysis. Sugar markets appear especially exposed, with previous El Niño events having driven production declines of 20% to 30% in major producers India and Thailand, pushing those countries toward net imports and driving global prices higher, an effect that analysts say could be more pronounced this time given that a larger share of existing sugar stockpiles is being diverted into ethanol production amid rising biofuel demand tied to the broader Middle East oil shock.

Leigh Mante, junior fellow for climate and energy at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, said in a report published in May that the developing El Niño is likely to produce sharply uneven effects across different crops and regions. "The projected El Niño is likely to yield asymmetric impacts; with drought-like conditions reducing maize, rice, and wheat production in Asia and Australia and wet conditions boosting global soybean production in the Americas," Mante wrote. She added that the compounding effects of ongoing regional conflict and climate disruption could further complicate already strained supply chains. "With ongoing trade blockages at the Strait of Hormuz, added climate vulnerabilities may further complicate just-in-time supply chain operations," Mante wrote.

The World Meteorological Organization has separately warned that governments and industries need to prepare for the possibility of an unusually severe event. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves," the WMO said in guidance issued earlier this year.

Historical precedent underscores the scale of disruption a truly severe El Niño can cause. The 1877 "super" El Niño, one of the strongest ever recorded, contributed to a global famine spanning 1876 to 1878 that historians estimate killed tens of millions of people worldwide. Analysts caution that while modern food systems and international supply networks are far more developed and resilient than in the 19th century, the risk of significant disruption remains substantial given the scale of the current forecast.

Beyond agriculture, El Niño's broader economic effects have historically extended to shipping and energy infrastructure. Reduced rainfall associated with the pattern has previously lowered water levels along critical waterways including the Panama Canal and the Amazon River, forcing authorities to impose vessel weight restrictions and disrupting cargo transport in past events. The Panama Canal Authority has said it does not currently plan restrictions for 2026, though analysts note the threat of drought-induced disruption in 2027 remains a live concern as the El Niño pattern intensifies through the back half of this year.

For households already grappling with elevated living costs worldwide, economists say an extreme El Niño threatens to compound existing pressure at a particularly difficult moment. The prospect of a renewed inflation shock tied to food prices is also unsettling central banks, adding to concerns among policymakers that interest rates may need to remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated in order to keep broader price growth under control.

With NOAA's next official ENSO diagnostic assessment expected in the coming weeks and forecasting models continuing to trend toward a stronger event with each successive update, economists and climate scientists alike say the coming months will be critical in determining just how severe the resulting food price shock ultimately becomes, and how long its effects on global households are likely to persist beyond the initial disruption.