Is SpaceX Stock Still Worth Buying Right Now? Wall Street Remains Deeply Split After Wild Post-IPO Swings

Just over two weeks after going public in what's been described as the largest initial public offering in history, SpaceX has already delivered one of the most volatile rides Wall Street has seen from a newly listed company, leaving investors and analysts deeply divided over whether the stock still represents a buying opportunity or a name better watched from the sidelines for now.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., trading under the ticker SPCX, priced at $135 when the company went public June 12. The stock then rocketed to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, a 67% gain in just three trading sessions, before reversing sharply and falling to an all-time low of $147.11 by June 23. As of late last week, shares were trading in the $148 to $158 range, putting the stock down roughly 24% from its post-IPO peak even as it remains well above its original offering price. The swings have been so dramatic that SpaceX's market capitalization, recently estimated at around $2 trillion, has fallen by more than 16% in a single week, according to data from TradingView.

Wall Street's response to the volatility has been anything but unified. Among the limited number of analysts currently covering the stock, ratings range from "Buy" to "Hold," and price targets are scattered across an unusually wide spectrum. One tally from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows a consensus "Buy" rating across roughly 10 analysts, with an average 12-month price target of $187.80, a high estimate of $310 and a low estimate of just $62. A separate tracking source shows a more cautious three-analyst consensus landing on "Hold," with a price target around $178. Morningstar's own fair value estimate sits at just $63, a figure dramatically below where the stock currently trades and roughly in line with the most bearish Wall Street price target, underscoring just how unsettled professional opinion remains on the company's true worth.

Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan, among the first analysts outside the IPO's underwriting syndicate to publish independent coverage, set a $190 price target with an Outperform rating, arguing that no other publicly traded company operates simultaneously across the three business lines SpaceX now spans: satellite connectivity, rocket launch services and artificial intelligence. That argument, however, didn't stop the stock from briefly surpassing his target within 48 hours of going public, before the subsequent pullback brought shares back down closer to that level. Argus, meanwhile, initiated coverage with a Hold rating, suggesting it could take years before the stock's valuation multiples settle into more typical territory for an established aerospace or telecommunications company.

Much of the disagreement stems from how investors should weigh SpaceX's three distinct business segments against one another. The company's Connectivity unit, built around its Starlink satellite broadband service, is currently the only consistently profitable part of the business, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin and roughly 10.3 million subscribers spread across 164 countries and territories as of the end of March. That segment faces a real competitive threat, however, as Amazon's Project Kuiper satellite network continues to scale, and some analysts have flagged that Starlink's push into lower-income markets could compress average revenue per user over time.

The company's Space segment, which includes its established Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets along with the still-developing Starship vehicle, represents the largest source of uncertainty in the bull case. If Starship reaches full operational scale, it could reduce launch costs dramatically and unlock new revenue streams in orbital cargo transport, space tourism and eventually deep-space missions. That potential appears to be a significant driver behind some of the more bullish price targets on Wall Street, though it remains unproven at commercial scale. SpaceX's newer AI segment, which now includes the Grok large language model, the X social media platform and AI computing infrastructure following the company's integration of Elon Musk's xAI venture, adds a third and even less predictable variable to the investment case. Across all three segments combined, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in its most recent quarter, a sharp deterioration from a $528 million loss in the prior quarter, reflecting the enormous capital intensity of scaling rockets, satellites and AI infrastructure simultaneously.

Beyond the operating business, SpaceX has been active on several other fronts that could influence the stock in the near term. The company recently completed a $25 billion debt offering through five separate tranches of senior notes, and credit-default swaps tied to that debt began trading shortly afterward, with some early signals suggesting modest caution from credit markets. SpaceX is also reportedly considering a Starlink-branded mobile phone service for U.S. consumers and has held discussions with Charter Communications about a potential mobile partnership, developments that contributed to a warning from TD Cowen that SpaceX's expansion into wireless services could remain an overhang on traditional telecom stocks. The company was also among the winning bidders, alongside Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, in a recent Federal Communications Commission spectrum auction.

One major near-term catalyst for the stock has nothing to do with SpaceX's operations at all. The company is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, a move that forces every fund tracking that index, along with its global equivalents, to purchase SPCX shares in proportion to its index weighting. BNP Paribas has estimated that mechanical buying alone could generate as much as $8 billion in forced demand within the first month following inclusion, separate from any judgment-based investment decisions. Some market commentary has suggested short sellers betting against the stock could face additional pressure from a related buying wave tied to the index inclusion.

The next major fundamental checkpoint for investors will arrive September 2, when SpaceX is scheduled to report its first set of public quarterly earnings. That date also marks the end of the quiet period for the banks that underwrote the IPO, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, all of which are expected to begin publishing independent research on the stock at that point, potentially expanding the small pool of current analyst coverage considerably and giving investors a clearer, more consensus-driven picture of the company's prospects.

For now, the wide gap between SpaceX's most bullish and most bearish price targets, and the split between analysts recommending the stock and those urging patience, reflects a company still very much in price discovery less than three weeks after going public. As with any individual stock, and particularly one this newly listed and volatile, decisions about whether SpaceX belongs in a portfolio ultimately depend on an investor's own risk tolerance, time horizon and broader financial circumstances rather than any single analyst's price target or news headline.