Is SpaceX Stock Still a Buy After Its Latest Tumble? Here's What the Numbers Show

SpaceX shares have lost roughly a third of their value since peaking above $225 just two weeks after the company's record-setting IPO, leaving investors divided over whether the stock now represents a buying opportunity or remains dangerously overvalued.

The Scale of the Decline

SpaceX stock peaked above $225 on June 16, 2026. By June 22, it closed at $154.60 — a 31% decline in four trading sessions, with $620 billion in market capitalization erased. The stock that briefly ranked fourth largest in the world, ahead of Amazon and ahead of Microsoft, dropped to seventh.

What Triggered the Drop

The selloff is not a mystery. It is a textbook post-IPO correction that was visible to anyone who looked at the fundamentals. SpaceX listed on June 12 with a 4.2% float, the lowest for any mega-cap debut in U.S. history. A 30% retail allocation, the highest on record, amplified moves in both directions. Vanda Research data shows individual investors bought $369.8 million of SpaceX stock in the first three sessions — quadruple what they put into Nvidia over the same period.

The drop accelerated further after SpaceX announced its first-ever bond issuance to repay a bridge loan tied to its February acquisition of Elon Musk's xAI startup. Debt offerings can at times weigh on stock prices as investors grow concerned about interest expense and the negative implications of a company's need for additional funding.

The Bear Case: Overvalued by Almost Any Measure

Yes, by every conventional financial metric, SpaceX is overvalued at its current price. It trades at roughly 105 times price-to-sales, carries a negative 45% profit margin, has accumulated a $41.3 billion deficit, and posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Morningstar's fair value estimate sits at $63 per share — about 59% below where the stock closed even after the recent selloff.

That valuation gap stands out dramatically when compared to peers. SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio dwarfs every other mega-cap technology company: Nvidia trades around 35 times sales with a positive 55% margin, Microsoft around 12 times with a positive 35% margin, Tesla around 10 times with a positive 7% margin, Alphabet around 5 times with a positive 28% margin, and Amazon around 3 times with a positive 9% margin. SpaceX is not just expensively valued relative to profitable tech companies — it's in a different category entirely.

A Coming Supply Risk to Watch

Beyond the current valuation gap, analysts have flagged a specific future date as a major risk for the stock. Insiders who bought at pennies on the dollar can start selling into a market with only a 4.2% float once lockup restrictions expire. The first wave of lockup expiries hits in August 2026, coinciding with the company's first earnings report as a public company. That month is widely viewed as the single highest-risk window on the calendar for shareholders, given the potential for a sudden flood of newly tradable shares.

The Bull Case: The Bond Deal Removed a Key Risk

Despite the bearish valuation arguments, the recent bond offering itself has provided a genuine, concrete reason for optimism among some analysts. SpaceX's $25 billion bond offering attracted $89 billion in demand, a 3.5 times oversubscription signaling strong institutional confidence. This transaction effectively eliminates the September 2027 bridge loan maturity risk, the primary catalyst behind the stock's recent decline from $225 to $147.11.

One analysis framed the disconnect bluntly: the gap between $89 billion of bond demand by institutions and the three-day equity selloff is the most obvious sign of panic over credit risk pricing that doesn't actually exist among credit investors lending at yields of 5.35% to 6.65%. That assessment recommended buying above $161, targeting $172, with the technical picture showing oversold conditions and upside divergence forming off trendline support.

Where Specific Analysts Stand

Formal Wall Street coverage of the stock spans an unusually wide range. Analyst targets range from $62 at Morningstar to $310 at Oppenheimer, with one tracking consensus at roughly $221. Susquehanna has set a Neutral price target of $170. Oppenheimer's Timothy Horan rests his $190 Outperform rating on a single argument: no other publicly traded company operates across SpaceX's three verticals — launch services, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence — simultaneously.

What's Actually Working: Starlink

Buying SpaceX stock is not a single bet on a single company — it's effectively three separate bets inside one ticker. Starlink remains the only profitable part of SpaceX right now, generating $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin, and roughly 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as of March 31, 2026. The trajectory there is genuinely strong, though competition from Amazon's Project Kuiper, which is actively scaling, and the possibility that expansion into lower-income markets could compress average revenue per subscriber, represent real ongoing risks to that business line specifically.

The Bigger Variance: Starship and AI

The two other components of the bull case carry far more uncertainty. Starship reaching full commercial scale would represent the biggest swing factor in the entire bull case — if achieved, it could reduce launch costs by an order of magnitude and unlock entirely new revenue lines in orbital cargo, tourism, and eventually deep-space missions. Meanwhile, SpaceX's AI segment, anchored by the Grok large language model and broader AI infrastructure ambitions following the xAI acquisition, remains squarely loss-making, with operating losses cited repeatedly as a key overhang weighing on sentiment.

A Note on Volatility Going Forward

Given the stock's extraordinarily small float, dramatic single-day swings should be expected to continue for some time. Historical data on the 15 largest U.S. IPOs shows an average 50% drawdown in year one — a useful benchmark for anyone evaluating how much further downside risk might remain, even after the stock's already substantial pullback from its mid-June peak.

The Bottom Line

There is no simple answer to whether SpaceX is still a good buy after its recent tumble. The bull case rests on a successfully de-risked balance sheet following the well-received bond sale, a genuinely strong and profitable Starlink business, and substantial long-term optionality tied to Starship and AI infrastructure. The bear case rests on a valuation that remains extreme by any conventional financial metric, ongoing losses across multiple segments, and a looming August lockup expiration that could trigger significant additional selling pressure.

As with any investment decision involving a stock this newly listed, this volatile, and carrying this wide a dispersion in professional analyst opinion — from $62 to $310 — it's worth doing your own research, weighing your personal risk tolerance and time horizon, and consulting a qualified financial advisor before making a decision. This overview is intended to lay out the facts and competing perspectives currently circulating among analysts, not to tell you what to do with your money.