SpaceX Stock Jumps Nearly 6% Ahead of First Public Earnings Report as Massive Share Lockup Nears Fast

SpaceX shares climbed nearly 6% Tuesday morning, trading at $121.28 as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, as investors positioned ahead of the company's first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company, due after the closing bell.

Tuesday's gains extend a rebound that began Monday, when SpaceX shares rose 5.7%, snapping a seven-session losing streak that had pushed the stock well below its June initial public offering price. Despite the two-day rally, shares remain down roughly 30% from SpaceX's $135 IPO price and more than 45% below the $225.64 all-time high the stock reached on June 16, just days after it began trading on the Nasdaq.

A defining week for the newly public company

Tuesday's earnings report marks SpaceX's first financial disclosure as a public company since its record-setting $85.7 billion IPO in June, the largest in history. Management is scheduled to discuss the results on a live audio-only webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, giving investors their first detailed look at the company's second-quarter performance across its three main business lines: space launch operations, Starlink connectivity, and a growing push into artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

The report also carries added significance because it triggers the first major release of insider-held shares under SpaceX's staggered lock-up structure. Beginning Thursday, Aug. 6, roughly 911.5 million shares, representing up to 20% of eligible insider holdings, become eligible for sale, a pool of stock worth well over $100 billion at current prices. That looming supply increase has weighed heavily on investor sentiment in recent weeks, with some analysts warning that a wave of insider selling could pressure the stock further regardless of how Tuesday's earnings are received.

Analysts remain broadly bullish despite the slide

Even as the stock has struggled since its debut, Wall Street's overall outlook on SpaceX remains largely positive. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 27 carry buy-equivalent ratings, with only one recommending a sell, according to data compiled by Benzinga. Consensus price targets sit in the range of $231 to $236, implying substantial potential upside from current levels, while Morgan Stanley has set a particularly bullish $300 price target. RBC Capital has maintained an Outperform rating with a $225 target heading into Tuesday's results, and Bernstein has recommended buying the stock with a $239 price forecast.

Bernstein analysts told CNBC that Starship, SpaceX's massive next-generation rocket system, remains the central factor investors should watch in justifying the company's valuation, alongside its access to semiconductor supply, regulatory approvals and compute capacity for its expanding AI ambitions. The firm has argued that quarterly financial results matter less to the long-term investment case than management's demonstrated confidence in the company's broader growth trajectory.

A financial picture still defined by heavy losses

SpaceX's underlying financials continue to show a company operating deep in the red even as revenue grows. The company posted a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion in sales, followed by a first-quarter 2026 loss of about $4.28 billion. Within that overall picture, Starlink has emerged as the company's lone clearly profitable segment, generating $1.19 billion in operating profit on $3.26 billion in first-quarter revenue, while SpaceX's newer AI infrastructure segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss over the same period.

Looking further ahead, SpaceX's own capital expenditure projections point to a dramatic escalation in spending, growing from nearly $49 billion this year to as much as $118 billion by 2028, with total company debt projected to exceed $218 billion over that same stretch. That scale of planned investment, aimed largely at expanding launch capacity, Starlink infrastructure and AI computing power, has fueled ongoing debate among investors over whether SpaceX's current valuation adequately accounts for the years of heavy spending still ahead.

Heavy short interest adds to the volatility

SpaceX has also become one of the most heavily shorted stocks on Wall Street since its debut, with bearish positions against the company valued at roughly $24.6 billion, a figure that exceeds the short interest built up against Tesla. Investors betting against the stock have accumulated an estimated $7.3 billion in mark-to-market gains since SpaceX began trading, reflecting the sharp decline in shares since their June peak. The options market is currently pricing an implied move of roughly 14% to 15% in either direction around Tuesday's earnings release, underscoring just how much uncertainty remains heading into the report.

Broader market backdrop

SpaceX's rally Tuesday came alongside broader strength across Wall Street, with Nasdaq futures up more than 0.6% and S&P 500 futures also higher in early trading, as investors digested a wave of strong corporate earnings from other major companies and continued optimism around easing tensions in the Middle East. That supportive backdrop has helped several beaten-down growth stocks, including SpaceX, find some footing in recent sessions even as company-specific concerns around valuation and share supply persist.

With earnings due after Tuesday's close and the lock-up expiration following just two days later on Thursday, SpaceX faces a compressed window in which both its financial performance and the market's appetite for a massive new supply of shares will be tested simultaneously. Analysts widely view the earnings report as the company's best near-term opportunity to stabilize investor sentiment before insider selling potentially accelerates, though the scale of uncertainty reflected in the options market suggests Wall Street remains far from settled on how the results, and the days that follow, will ultimately play out for one of this year's most closely watched newly public companies.