SpaceX Stock Hovers Near Its June IPO Price as Starship Flight 13 Nears After FAA Clears Mishap Probe

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies fell 1.65% on Wednesday, trading at $133.84, down $2.24 on the day, continuing a slide that has pushed the stock below its June initial public offering price of $135 per share and near its all-time low of $136.78, reached just two days earlier.

Wednesday's decline extends a difficult stretch for SpaceX shares since the company's landmark Nasdaq debut, which ranked as the most valuable initial public offering in history. The stock reached an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, meaning shares have now fallen more than 40% from that peak in the roughly one month since SpaceX began trading publicly.

FAA Clears Path Toward Next Starship Test Flight

Despite the stock's recent weakness, SpaceX received positive operational news this week when the Federal Aviation Administration completed its review of a booster issue that occurred during the company's Starship test flight in May. The FAA's completed review clears the path for SpaceX to proceed toward Starship's 13th test flight, pending remaining safety and licensing requirements.

That development has drawn renewed analyst attention to the stock, with several firms reiterating bullish price targets ahead of the anticipated launch. Raymond James has maintained a price target implying more than 470% upside from current trading levels, according to recent analyst commentary, while Evercore has turned more bullish on the stock specifically ahead of the upcoming Starship test flight.

A Volatile Post-IPO Trading Pattern

SpaceX's stock has exhibited significant volatility since its public debut, reflecting both the scale of investor interest in the company and genuine uncertainty about how to value a business spanning launch services, satellite broadband and artificial intelligence operations. The stock's beta coefficient of 5.79 reflects an extraordinary level of volatility relative to the broader market, among the highest of any major publicly traded company.

The stock had briefly traded as high as $148 following its addition to the Nasdaq 100 index in early July, before beginning a sustained slide that brought shares down toward, and eventually below, their original IPO price within a matter of days.

Analysts Debate How to Value the Company

SpaceX's unusual combination of businesses has made the company particularly difficult for analysts to value using traditional frameworks. MoffettNathanson analyst Zhu recently characterized SpaceX as an especially challenging company to value given the diversity of its operations, spanning traditional rocket launch services, the Starlink satellite broadband network, and an artificial intelligence segment that includes the Grok large language model and the X social media platform.

Despite that valuation complexity, Wall Street sentiment toward the stock remains predominantly positive. According to recent tracking data, 26 analysts currently recommend buying SpaceX shares, compared with just one sell recommendation, resulting in an overall Buy rating consensus. The average 12-month price target sits at approximately $242.22, with individual estimates ranging as high as $800 and as low as $62, reflecting the unusually wide range of opinion on the company's appropriate valuation.

High-Profile Investor Activity

SpaceX's stock volatility has continued to attract attention from prominent institutional investors. Cathie Wood's investment firm recently swapped $23 million worth of Advanced Micro Devices shares for SpaceX stock, according to recent trading disclosures, reflecting continued institutional interest in the stock despite its recent pullback from all-time highs.

Separately, investor Chamath Palihapitiya has publicly suggested that a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla could offer strategic and financial benefits for both companies, despite acknowledging potential hurdles to such a combination. JPMorgan has separately characterized the possibility of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up as "strategically coherent," while flagging potential operational bottleneck concerns tied to such a merger.

Continued Operational Milestones

Beyond the upcoming Starship test flight, SpaceX has continued announcing new commercial partnerships and operational developments in recent weeks. Frontier Airlines announced plans to launch in-flight Wi-Fi using SpaceX's Starlink satellite network beginning in early 2027, extending Starlink's growing footprint within the commercial aviation sector.

SpaceX has also maintained an extraordinarily high launch cadence, having logged approximately 165 total launches over the past year and accumulating nearly a decade of experience with Falcon 9 first-stage rocket reuse, underscoring the operational maturity of its core launch business even as investors continue debating the company's overall valuation.

Financial Performance Remains a Question Mark

SpaceX's most recent quarterly net income figures showed a loss of approximately $4.28 billion, a significant deterioration from a loss of $528 million during the prior quarter, according to recent financial data. The company does not currently pay dividends to shareholders, and its next earnings report is scheduled for August 6, which will provide investors with updated visibility into the company's financial trajectory following its public listing.

A Company Still Finding Its Public Market Footing

Market analysts have generally characterized SpaceX's recent stock weakness as part of a broader post-IPO adjustment period, in which speculative early trading gives way to more grounded valuation debates as investors work to reconcile the company's ambitious long-term growth narrative with near-term financial realities, including substantial ongoing losses tied to its capital-intensive space and AI infrastructure investments.

With SpaceX's next Starship test flight now cleared to proceed following the FAA's completed safety review, investors are likely to treat the upcoming launch as a key near-term catalyst for the stock, given Starship's central role in the company's long-term ambitions for deep-space missions and its broader space transportation business. Should the test flight proceed successfully, some analysts believe it could help stabilize sentiment toward the stock following its sharp post-IPO decline, while any further setbacks could add to the uncertainty that has already characterized SpaceX's first month as a publicly traded company.