SpaceX Shares Edge Higher Ahead of Debut Earnings Report After Securing $1.6B Space Force Contract

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. rose in early trading Monday as investors positioned ahead of the company's first earnings report as a public company. The stock traded near $109.71, up about 1.24%, or $1.34, after closing the previous session lower.

SpaceX, trading under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq, is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, Aug. 4. Management plans a webcast to discuss the numbers. Analysts are projecting revenue of roughly $6.9 billion for the period, reflecting strong year-over-year growth driven by Starlink subscriptions, launch services and early contributions from artificial intelligence infrastructure deals.

The modest rebound comes after a sharp post-IPO decline. SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, pricing 555.6 million Class A shares at $135 and raising approximately $75 billion before underwriters fully exercised their overallotment option, bringing total proceeds near $85.7 billion. Shares opened at $150 and briefly climbed as high as $225.64 in the days that followed, pushing the company's market value above $2 trillion at its peak. Since then the stock has retreated more than 50% from that high and now trades below the IPO price in recent sessions, with a market capitalization around $1.4 trillion based on roughly 13 billion shares outstanding.

A key recent development supporting sentiment has been a $1.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 missions scheduled through the end of 2027. The award, announced late last week, equates to about $89 million per launch and adds to a series of Pentagon contracts SpaceX has secured this year totaling at least $7 billion. Many of those awards relate to national security launches and the administration's planned Golden Dome missile defense architecture. Space Force officials noted the latest deal moved from initiation to award in just two months, underscoring the company's operational tempo.

SpaceX continues to dominate the commercial launch market with its Falcon 9 fleet while advancing Starship development. The company recently completed its 13th Starship flight test, which included a successful soft splashdown and deployment of Starlink satellites. Heat-shield tile evaluations also passed demanding stress tests. Starlink remains the primary revenue driver. Of the 89 Falcon 9 launches conducted so far this year, 69 have been dedicated Starlink missions. The satellite constellation generates recurring broadband subscription revenue and supports government and enterprise customers.

Beyond traditional space operations, SpaceX has expanded into AI compute. The company has signed multiyear agreements to supply computing capacity, including deals involving large numbers of Nvidia graphics processing units and partnerships that management has described as positioning orbital data centers as a longer-term opportunity. These initiatives contributed to elevated capital spending and wider losses in the first quarter of 2026, when the company reported $4.7 billion in revenue but a loss of about $4.3 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue stood at $18.7 billion with a net loss of $4.9 billion.

Following the IPO, SpaceX also completed a $25 billion senior notes offering across multiple maturities, using proceeds in part to repay bridge financing. The company disclosed holding more than $100 billion in cash and equivalents shortly after the listing, providing substantial liquidity for manufacturing expansion, Starship development and AI infrastructure buildout.

Investors are closely watching the Aug. 4 report for updates on Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, Starship progress and the pace of AI revenue recognition. Equally significant is the approaching end of an initial lockup period. A substantial block of shares becomes eligible for sale around Aug. 6, two days after the earnings release. Analysts and market participants have flagged the unlock as a potential source of near-term supply pressure even as longer-term growth expectations remain elevated. Consensus revenue growth forecasts for the full year 2026 and into 2027 approach or exceed 100% in some models, with 2027 revenue projections reaching as high as $80 billion in optimistic scenarios.

Wall Street coverage has been predominantly constructive despite the share-price decline. A majority of analysts covering the stock maintain buy or outperform ratings, with average 12-month price targets well above current levels. Some research notes have highlighted the combination of launch dominance, Starlink scale and AI optionality as justification for premium valuations, while others caution that heavy investment phases and dual-class governance concentrated with founder Elon Musk introduce risks.

The stock's volatility since the June debut has mirrored broader investor debates about capital-intensive growth companies. After an initial surge fueled by retail and institutional demand, concerns over valuation multiples, the size of the public float relative to total shares outstanding, and the path to sustained profitability weighed on the shares. Short interest has risen in recent weeks as some traders positioned ahead of the earnings and unlock calendar.

Operationally, SpaceX continues to set industry records for launch frequency and reusability. The company manufactures Starlink satellites at high volume in Washington state and is scaling production capacity to support denser constellation deployments and next-generation V2 and V3 satellites. Starship, once fully operational, is expected to enable lower-cost heavy-lift missions, lunar landings under NASA contracts, and the eventual placement of larger payloads, including potential AI hardware, into orbit.

Monday's modest gain leaves the stock still well below both its IPO price and post-debut peak. Traders will parse Tuesday's results for evidence that the combination of government contracts, commercial launches and new AI-related revenue streams is translating into accelerating top-line growth and improving unit economics. Any commentary on capital allocation, Starship flight cadence or Starlink monetization is likely to influence trading in the days surrounding the lockup expiration.

SpaceX's transition from a closely held private company to one of the most widely followed public stocks has been rapid and turbulent. The coming week will provide the first full public financial picture of a business that has redefined access to space while simultaneously pursuing ambitious terrestrial and orbital computing goals. How management frames the balance between near-term losses and long-term opportunity will help determine whether the recent share-price recovery can gain further traction or whether selling pressure from the unlock dominates the near term.