France and Argentina Have the Best Odds to Meet in the World Cup 2026 Final, Bookmakers Currently Say

With the World Cup's quarterfinal picture now largely set, bookmakers and prediction models have identified France and Argentina as the two teams most likely to reach this year's final, a projection based on both nations' strong outright title odds and their positioning on opposite sides of the tournament bracket.

According to odds published via FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 6, France remains the outright favorite to win the tournament at +175, meaning a $10 bet would return $27.50 total. Spain sits second at +330, followed by Argentina at +450 and England at +500. Norway, Colombia, Belgium, Morocco, Switzerland and Egypt round out the field with considerably longer odds, ranging from +1800 for Norway up to +25000 for Egypt.

The reason France and Argentina stand out as the most likely finalists comes down to bracket structure rather than head-to-head odds alone. The tournament's knockout bracket is split into two separate halves, with the winners of each half advancing to face one another in the final. France sits in the top half of the bracket alongside Spain, meaning the two European heavyweights, currently the tournament's first and second favorites, are on a collision course to meet each other in the semifinal round rather than the final itself. That dynamic effectively makes France the strongest single team positioned to emerge from that half of the bracket, given its status as the tournament's overall favorite heading into its quarterfinal matchup with Morocco.

Argentina, by contrast, sits in the bottom half of the bracket alongside England, Norway, Egypt, Switzerland and Colombia. With odds of +450, Argentina holds a narrow edge over England's +500 as the most likely team to emerge from that half of the draw and reach the final. That positioning means Argentina and France, rather than Argentina and Spain or England and France, represent the most statistically probable pairing to meet in this year's championship match, according to current bookmaker projections.

France's path to the final begins with a quarterfinal matchup against Morocco on Thursday, July 9, in Boston. France reached this stage after posting an unbeaten group-stage campaign followed by knockout wins over Sweden and Paraguay, with Kylian Mbappe continuing to anchor the team's attack as one of the tournament's leading scorers. Morocco, meanwhile, advanced by eliminating co-host Canada 3-0, becoming the first African nation to reach back-to-back World Cup quarterfinals following its historic run to the semifinals in 2022. Should France advance as expected, the team would face the winner of Spain's quarterfinal against Belgium in the semifinal round, a matchup that would pit the tournament's top two favorites against one another before either could reach the final.

Argentina's route runs through a different set of contests. The two-time defending champion faces Egypt on Tuesday in Atlanta, a highly anticipated matchup pairing Lionel Messi against Mohamed Salah. Argentina advanced to this stage after needing extra time to eliminate tournament debutant Cape Verde in the Round of 32, while Egypt reached the Round of 16 for the first time in 92 years on the strength of a penalty shootout win over Australia. Should Argentina advance past Egypt, the team would then face the winner of Tuesday's other remaining fixture between Switzerland and Colombia in the quarterfinal round, before a potential semifinal matchup against the winner of Norway's quarterfinal against England.

England's path has also strengthened considerably in recent days. According to ESPN's betting coverage, England's outright title odds improved from 10-1 to +520 following the team's dramatic 3-2 win over co-host Mexico, moving the Three Lions ahead of every team except France and Argentina in the outright market. Norway's odds similarly surged from 45-1 to 17-1 after the team's stunning 2-1 upset over five-time champion Brazil, reflecting the growing belief among bookmakers that Norway, led by tournament co-leading scorer Erling Haaland, could make a deeper run than initially expected.

Prediction market data has told a broadly similar story. Analysis from TNT Sports noted that France's odds have solidified since the team's knockout-stage wins over Sweden and Paraguay, reinforcing its position as the clearest favorite remaining in the tournament. Meanwhile, Spain's odds improved further following its 1-0 win over Portugal in the Round of 16, a result that also marked the end of Cristiano Ronaldo's storied World Cup career, though Spain's position on the same half of the bracket as France means the two nations cannot both reach the final under the tournament's current knockout structure.

It is worth noting that outright odds and bracket positioning, while useful indicators, do not guarantee any specific outcome, and the tournament has already produced several notable upsets through its group stage and Round of 16, including Norway's win over Brazil and Belgium's 4-1 rout of co-host United States. Colombia, Switzerland, Morocco, Belgium and Norway all remain alive with the potential to disrupt the projected France-Argentina final should any of them advance further than current odds suggest.

Beyond the outright betting markets, the ongoing race for the tournament's Golden Boot adds another layer of intrigue to a potential France-Argentina final. Mbappe and Messi currently sit tied atop the tournament's scoring charts with seven goals apiece, alongside Norway's Haaland, marking the first time in World Cup history that three players have reached that tally in the same tournament. Should France and Argentina both advance to the final as bookmakers currently project, the match would not only represent a rematch of sorts between two of the tournament's most successful recent programs, but also potentially set up a direct showdown between two of the game's most prolific active goal-scorers on the sport's biggest stage.

With the semifinal round still more than a week away and the final not scheduled until July 19, plenty of soccer remains to be played before any final matchup is determined. For now, though, bookmakers and bracket analysis alike point toward France and Argentina as the two nations best positioned to meet in this year's championship match, a projection that will continue to be tested as the tournament moves through its remaining knockout rounds in the days ahead.