France vs. Sweden World Cup Preview: Mbappe-Led Favorites Face Tricky Test From High-Scoring Swedes Tonight

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Tournament favorite France takes on Sweden Tuesday in a Round of 32 World Cup matchup that pits one of the competition's most dominant offenses against a Swedish side whose own attacking talent has kept it alive through an otherwise shaky defensive campaign.

Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium, with France entering as a heavy favorite at -371 on the moneyline, according to odds from bet365. Sweden sits at +900 to advance, with the draw priced separately. The match's over/under for total goals is set at 3.5, with the over priced at +125 and the under at -155, reflecting widespread expectation that both sides will find the net.

France arrives unbeaten and dominant, having swept through the group stage with a perfect 3-0 record while scoring at least three goals in every match, a tally of 10 goals across three games under manager Didier Deschamps. The team's attack, led by Kylian Mbappé alongside Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, has been the standout storyline of the tournament's opening phase, overwhelming opponents with speed, depth and finishing quality from multiple positions across the front line.

Sweden, by contrast, enters the knockout round with a 1-1-1 group stage record, having advanced on the strength of an attack built around the Premier League pairing of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. That offensive firepower has been necessary given Sweden's well-documented defensive struggles; the team has gone 14 consecutive matches across all competitions without recording a clean sheet, and its three group stage matches at this tournament averaged a combined 4.67 goals, underscoring just how often Sweden has found itself involved in open, high-scoring contests rather than tightly controlled defensive battles.

That defensive vulnerability sets up what is expected to be an entertaining, if lopsided, knockout matchup. France's expected goals against figure of 2.86 across the group stage suggests the French defense, while strong overall, is not impenetrable; both Senegal and Norway managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus during the group phase, indicating a clean sheet is far from guaranteed for France even against a Swedish attack that will likely sit in a deep defensive block for long stretches of the match.

Historically, the matchup has tilted clearly in France's favor. The two nations have met 12 times in official competition, with France winning seven of those encounters. Their two most recent competitive meetings, both coming during the 2020 UEFA Nations League, ended in French victories by scores of 1-0 and 4-2. The last five meetings between the countries have averaged 3.0 combined goals per game, reinforcing the expectation of another high-scoring affair Tuesday. Notably, this will mark the first time the two nations have met at a major tournament since 2012, adding a layer of historical significance to a matchup that otherwise carries straightforward stakes: the winner advances, and the loser's World Cup ends immediately.

Both teams' projected starting lineups reflect their contrasting tactical approaches. France is expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Mike Maignan in goal behind a back line of Jules Koundé, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Théo Hernandez, while Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni anchor the midfield behind an attacking trio of Dembélé, Olise and Barcola supporting Mbappé up top. Sweden, meanwhile, is expected to set up in a 3-4-3 formation, with goalkeeper Daniel Nordfeldt protected by a back three, a four-man midfield, and an attacking front three featuring Anthony Elanga alongside Gyökeres and Isak.

Given the contrast between France's prolific attack and Sweden's leaky defense, betting markets and bettors alike have gravitated toward goals-based wagers rather than simply backing France to win outright. The "Both Teams to Score" market has been a particularly popular angle, having hit in each of Sweden's last nine matches across all competitions, including all three of their group stage games at this tournament. A combination bet pairing a France victory with over 2.5 total goals has also drawn attention as an appealing proposition, given France's tendency to score in bunches and Sweden's near-certain inability to keep the match scoreless given its defensive track record.

Weather could also play a meaningful role in Tuesday's match. A heat wave is expected to grip the New York and New Jersey region this week, with East Rutherford forecast to reach a high of 91 degrees and 49% humidity at kickoff, conditions that could test both teams' stamina, particularly in the second half, and potentially open up additional space as fatigue sets in for players on both sides.

For France, advancing past Sweden would keep alive the team's pursuit of a third World Cup title in the tournament's modern era and set up a Round of 16 matchup against the winner of a separate bracket fixture. For Sweden, a victory would represent one of the more significant upsets of this year's tournament, given the gulf in both squad talent and current form between the two sides heading into Tuesday's match.

With France's attacking talent considered among the deepest in the tournament and Sweden's defense among the most porous of any remaining team, Tuesday's match in East Rutherford figures to deliver exactly the kind of high-scoring, free-flowing contest that recent history between these two nations, and Sweden's own defensive track record this year, would suggest is likely. Whether that translates into a comfortable French victory or a more competitive, back-and-forth affair will become clear once play begins at MetLife Stadium under what is expected to be a sweltering summer evening in New Jersey.