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The 2026 FIFA World Cup's expanded knockout bracket is beginning to take clear shape, with seven nations already assured of a Round of 16 berth following the completion of the first week of win-or-go-home play, while several of the competition's most storied programs have been sent home far earlier than expected.

The round of 32, a feature unique to this year's enlarged 48-team format, has produced a string of notable eliminations and compelling results since kicking off June 28. Japan, Germany and the Netherlands have all been eliminated, three programs that entered the tournament as genuine contenders, making Wednesday's schedule of three additional matches all the more consequential for the teams still trying to ensure their own survival.

The bracket opened June 28 with Canada defeating South Africa 1-0, setting up a Round of 16 matchup against Morocco in Houston on Saturday, July 4. South Africa's elimination carried particular weight given the team had shocked co-hosts Mexico with a 1-0 victory in the group stage, a result that contributed to weeks of national recrimination in Mexico before El Tri recovered to advance and then beat Ecuador 2-0 in their own round of 32 fixture Tuesday.

Monday's results were among the round's most dramatic. Brazil edged Japan 2-1 in Houston in a match that saw Japan push Vinícius Júnior's side far closer than the final scoreline suggested, before Brazil's quality in transition ultimately proved decisive. Japan's exit brought an end to one of the tournament's most technically impressive groups stage campaigns. Separately on Monday, Morocco outlasted the Netherlands on penalty kicks, 3-2, after the sides finished 1-1 through 90 minutes, eliminating a Netherlands team that had been considered a dark-horse contender entering the tournament. Morocco will now face Canada on July 4 in Houston, a repeat of a 2022 World Cup encounter that the Moroccans won on penalties during their remarkable run to the semifinals in Qatar.

Also Monday, Paraguay pulled off one of the round's biggest upsets, eliminating Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw, denying the four-time World Cup winners a place in the Round of 16 in what has already been described as one of the tournament's most stunning results. Paraguay will now face France in Philadelphia on July 4, a daunting assignment given France's 3-0 dismantling of Sweden on Tuesday in which Kylian Mbappé scored twice to draw level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot standings at six goals apiece.

Tuesday's remaining results set up what should be a fascinating Round of 16 weekend. Norway defeated Ivory Coast 2-1, advancing Erling Haaland's side to face Brazil on July 5 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in what many analysts are already framing as a potential match of the tournament. Mexico's 2-0 defeat of Ecuador, built on goals by Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez, extended the co-hosts' unbeaten record at the Estadio Azteca in World Cup competition to 10 matches and ended 40 years of knockout-stage futility for El Tri, who had not won a World Cup knockout game since beating Bulgaria at the same venue in 1986. Mexico will now face the winner of Wednesday's England vs. Congo DR match at the Azteca on July 6.

Wednesday's schedule includes three critical fixtures. England face Congo DR at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta with kickoff at noon ET, a match that will determine whether England, who were eliminated in the quarterfinals at the last World Cup, can advance to face Mexico in what would be one of the most anticipated Round of 16 matchups in the tournament. Belgium face Senegal at Lumen Field in Seattle at 4 p.m. ET, with the winner facing the survivor of the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina match, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. The United States' fixture carries enormous domestic significance for the co-hosts, with co-host status translating into a guaranteed World Cup appearance but no guarantee of deep advancement in a field packed with quality opposition across the bracket.

The remaining Round of 32 fixtures spread across Thursday, Friday and into the following weekend. Thursday brings Spain vs. Austria at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, at 3 p.m. ET, followed by Portugal vs. Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto at 7 p.m. ET, a heavyweight European clash that could determine whether Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored twice against Uzbekistan in the group stage, continues his own pursuit of tournament milestones. Switzerland vs. Algeria closes Thursday's schedule at 11 p.m. ET at BC Place in Vancouver.

Friday's schedule includes Australia vs. Egypt at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Argentina vs. Cape Verde at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens at 6 p.m. ET, a match that will almost certainly feature Messi and represents what many expect to be a straightforward advancement for the 2022 champions into the Round of 16 and another opportunity to add to his record tournament goal tally. Colombia vs. Ghana closes the round of 32 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 9:30 p.m. ET.

The full Round of 16 schedule runs July 4 through July 7, with Canada vs. Morocco and Paraguay vs. France both on July 4, followed by Brazil vs. Norway and Mexico vs. England or Congo DR on July 5, and Spain or Austria vs. Croatia or Portugal and Belgium or Senegal vs. USA or Bosnia on July 6, before Australia or Egypt vs. Argentina or Cape Verde and Switzerland or Algeria vs. Colombia or Ghana round out the last 16 on July 7. The quarterfinals follow on July 9, 10 and 11, with the semifinals scheduled for July 14 and 15, a third-place match July 18, and the World Cup final set for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.