Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have never met in a World Cup match during their two-decade rivalry. With the 2026 tournament just months away, the bracket has aligned perfectly for what could be their final showdown — and analysts now put the odds of an Argentina-Portugal quarterfinal at roughly 65 percent if both stars deliver as expected.

Lionel Messi, Paris Saint-Germain
IBTimes US

The expanded 48-team World Cup draw, completed in December 2025, placed defending champion Argentina in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan. Portugal landed in Group K alongside Colombia, Uzbekistan and a playoff winner. Both teams enter as overwhelming favorites to top their groups, setting up a high-probability path through the knockout stages.

Under the new format, the top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a 32-team knockout round. If Argentina and Portugal win their groups — a scenario bookmakers give better than 80 percent probability for each side individually — they would meet in the quarterfinals on July 11 at Arrowhead Stadium, provided they navigate the round of 32 and round of 16.

Projection models from sites like Opta and betting markets currently estimate the combined likelihood of that exact quarterfinal matchup at around 60-70 percent, with many settling near 65 percent when factoring in group dominance and early knockout form. Earlier clashes remain possible but less likely: a round-of-16 meeting if one team finishes second (around 20-25 percent) or a remote round-of-32 scenario if both drop to third.

Ronaldo, turning 41 in February 2026, has made clear this will be his last World Cup. The Portuguese captain continues to score prolifically for Al-Nassr and recently posted recovery updates after a minor hamstring issue. Coach Roberto Martinez has expressed full confidence in Ronaldo's fitness for June.

Cristiano Ronaldo is not yet ready to retire from the Portugal team
AFP

Messi, who turns 39 during the tournament, has been more reserved but strong signals point to his participation. The eight-time Ballon d'Or winner has already designated Kansas City as Argentina's base camp, with group-stage matches scheduled at Arrowhead and AT&T Stadium. Inter Miami and Argentina coaching staff have indicated he plans to be there for what could be his farewell tour.

Argentina remains the tournament favorite according to most oddsmakers, buoyed by its 2022 triumph and deep squad. Portugal sits further back but possesses enough talent to reach the later stages even with managed minutes for its aging superstar.

The potential July 11 clash in Kansas City has already sent ticket demand soaring on resale platforms, with some listings for the projected quarterfinal jumping 300 percent since the draw. Global TV audiences for such a matchup could reach billions, adding one final unforgettable chapter to a rivalry that has produced countless classics at club level.

For Messi, a second World Cup title would solidify his legacy. For Ronaldo, the tournament represents perhaps his last realistic shot at the one major honor missing from his glittering career. They have combined for 48 World Cup appearances without ever sharing the pitch in the competition.

Analysts caution that football's unpredictability remains. Upsets in the group stage or early knockouts could derail the dream scenario. Yet the bracket's structure, combined with both teams' quality, makes the quarterfinal meeting the most probable outcome of any Messi-Ronaldo World Cup encounter.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has repeatedly highlighted the tournament's potential for "dream matches," and few would top this one. As friendlies continue in March and squads take shape, the soccer world is already counting down to what could be the ultimate last dance.

Whether it ends in a Messi masterclass, Ronaldo heroics or dramatic extra time, a 65 percent chance feels tantalizingly close to destiny for two players who have defined an era.