SYDNEY — Australia is absorbing significant economic losses from the ongoing US-Iran war, with petrol prices hitting record highs near A$2.20 per litre, inflation forecasts revised upward by as much as 1.25 percentage points and more than A$300 billion wiped from the share market since fighting erupted in late February 2026, even as the nation's role as an energy exporter provides some offsetting gains in commodity revenues.

Sydney
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The conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets on Feb. 28, has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies through repeated threats to and partial closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have swung wildly, spiking above US$110-120 per barrel at peaks before settling around US$100 or higher in recent days — a roughly 50% jump from pre-war levels near US$70-75.

For Australia, which imports about 90% of its refined transport fuels while exporting crude oil, condensate and LNG, the net effect has been painful for households and businesses despite benefits to resource companies. Petrol prices have climbed 20-70 cents per litre in many areas since the war started, with wholesale diesel reaching A$2.45 per litre in some reports. Motorists and farmers are feeling the pinch, prompting panic buying at service stations and warnings of potential shortages if disruptions persist beyond mid-April.

Treasury analysis released in mid-March projected that if oil averages US$100 per barrel in the first half of 2026 before easing, headline inflation would peak 0.75 percentage points higher than previously expected, while gross domestic product would be about 0.2% lower. In a worse-case scenario with prices hitting US$120 and taking three years to normalize, inflation could rise an extra 1.25 points and GDP take a 0.6% hit by 2027 — equivalent to roughly A$18 billion in lost output.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signaled it is "very alert" to the risks, with Governor Michele Bullock noting potential second-round effects on inflation expectations. Higher fuel costs feed directly into the consumer price index, where automotive fuel carries significant weight, and indirectly raise prices for goods transported by road, air or sea, as well as energy-intensive products like fertiliser and plastics.

The stock market has borne a visible cost. The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen more than 9% from its early March peak, shedding over A$300 billion in value as investors priced in slower global growth, higher interest rates and uncertainty. Mining and energy stocks have shown mixed performance: some like Woodside and Santos benefited from elevated commodity prices, but broader sentiment dragged the index toward correction territory.

Exporters face additional headaches. War-risk insurance premiums have surged for shipping through or near affected areas, complicating deliveries to the Gulf and Europe. Air freight costs have risen, and some routes have been lengthened to avoid risky airspace. Consumer confidence has also dipped, potentially curbing spending and weighing on retail and tourism sectors.

Australia's low fuel stockpiles — around 36 days for petrol, 32 for diesel and 29 for jet fuel as of early March — have amplified vulnerability. The government temporarily relaxed fuel quality standards to boost local production by an extra 100 million litres per month and has coordinated with suppliers in Singapore, a key source of refined fuels. Energy Minister Chris Bowen authorized these measures to ease short-term pressure, but officials warn that physical shortages from Asian refineries cutting output could arrive after a supply-chain lag.

Farmers in regional areas are particularly exposed, with diesel shortages threatening autumn planting and higher input costs squeezing margins. Transport operators and airlines, including Qantas, have flagged fare increases or operational adjustments due to elevated jet fuel prices.

On the positive side, higher global energy prices have lifted Australia's terms of trade. LNG and coal export revenues are rising, boosting corporate profits in the resources sector and supporting government tax receipts. Some analysts note this could partially offset the drag on household disposable income, where the average family may face an extra A$14 per week or A$730 annually in fuel costs.

Still, most economists view the overall impact as negative in the near term. Westpac and CommBank modelling suggest retail petrol could average around A$2.02 per litre and diesel A$2.50 if prices hold, with underlying inflation remaining sticky above the RBA's target into 2027 and GDP growth shaved by 0.1-0.5 percentage points depending on duration.

The war has also prompted strategic responses. Australia has deployed military assets to the Middle East to support operations, including evacuation and potential escort duties, while participating in international efforts to secure shipping lanes. Critics argue deeper involvement risks complicating trade ties with China, a major buyer of Australian commodities and source of some fuel imports.

Longer-term risks include sustained pressure on the Australian dollar, which has weakened amid risk-off sentiment, and potential RBA rate hikes that could further dampen growth. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has described the economic consequences as "very substantial," noting they will shape the May budget. Calls have grown for a windfall profits tax on fossil fuel exporters to help ease cost-of-living pressures.

The situation remains fluid. Oil prices have shown extreme volatility, plunging on de-escalation hopes only to rebound on renewed threats. International efforts, including IEA-coordinated stockpile releases and diplomatic talks involving multiple nations, aim to stabilize flows, but analysts warn a prolonged Hormuz disruption could push prices toward US$150 or higher in extreme scenarios.

For ordinary Australians, the pain is already real at the pump and in broader price pressures. Businesses are absorbing or passing on costs, while policymakers balance short-term relief with longer-term energy security reforms. Australia's paradox — a major energy exporter with thin domestic fuel reserves — has rarely been more exposed.

As the conflict enters its fourth week, the full bill remains uncertain. Treasury and bank forecasts will likely be updated as events unfold, but early indications point to a meaningful hit to living standards and growth, tempered only partially by resource sector windfalls. Economists stress that a swift resolution would limit damage, while prolongation risks scarring the economy for years.