Nike Slides Near a 52-Week Low as China Slump and Soft Outlook Keep Pressure on Turnaround

BEAVERTON, Ore. — Nike shares slipped again Wednesday, hovering just above a fresh 52-week low as investors treated the sportswear giant's turnaround as a multiyear project with China still unfinished.

The stock traded at $37.06 around 12:09 p.m. Eastern, down $1.04, or 2.74%. It touched $37.95 on Sept. 3, then closed Sept. 4 at $38.40. The 52-week high is about $77. The November 2021 peak near $179 is now a historical footnote: the shares are down roughly 79% from that high, and the company that once commanded a 50-times earnings multiple now trades in the low-to-mid 20s on underlying profit.

There was no new quarterly print on Wednesday. The tape is still digesting fiscal 2026 results released June 30 for the year ended May 31, and a first-half fiscal 2027 outlook that calls for more sales declines. Broader pressure on discretionary names — oil near $100 a barrel after fighting around the Strait of Hormuz — did not help a brand that sells $150 sneakers.

Fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion, flat in dollars and down 2% in constant currency. Diluted earnings were $2.10 a share, down 3%. Strip out a one-time tariff recovery and underlying earnings were about $1.58, according to analyses of the company's own breakout. Net income was $3.1 billion, versus $3.2 billion a year earlier. Nike Direct, the stores-and-apps channel that was supposed to be the future, fell 6% to $17.7 billion. Digital dropped 12%. Wholesale was the relative bright spot. Footwear, still the core, was about $29.5 billion, down 2% in constant currency; units fell 1%. Apparel rose 4% to about $13.4 billion.

The fourth quarter told the same story in sharper type. Revenue was $10.97 billion, down 1% to 4% depending on the comparison, the lowest quarterly haul since early 2022. Greater China sales fell 17% in constant currency. That was better than the 20% drop the company had flagged three months earlier, and worse than the 10% decline in the third quarter. A $986 million tariff-related refund lifted quarterly net income to $1.07 billion and gross margin to 49.2%. Without it, management said margin would have been roughly flat; Reuters put the ex-refund margin near 40.2%.

Chief Executive Elliott Hill did not dress it up. "Overall, the results aren't there yet," he said on the post-earnings call. "We know we're not living up to our full potential." In March he had already said the turnaround "is taking longer than I would like."

Chief Financial Officer Matthew Friend was equally plain about the backdrop. "The environment around us continues to be volatile," he told investors, citing tariff risk, Middle East disruption and weak sentiment tied to high oil prices. Nike guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue down in the low-to-mid single digits, with no currency tailwind, and said the first half of the new year would still shrink. Second-quarter sales were expected to decelerate from the first because of last year's digital promotions in Europe and the timing of North America wholesale shipments. Gross margin was seen slightly positive in the first quarter as tariff year-over-year comparisons ease. Friend has said the first quarter of fiscal 2027 should be the last in which higher tariffs remain a material margin headwind.

The map of the business is split. North America has been "leading the way," in Hill's earlier phrase: wholesale up sharply in some recent periods, running posting multiple quarters of double-digit growth, football contributing. Sportswear and Jordan streetwear — together about half of sales — remain weak, with discounting and a soft order book. Management has said those two lines will stay negative in fiscal 2027, with hope for a better second half. Converse is in a reset. EMEA has dealt with traffic and promotion noise.

China is the structural problem. It is roughly 15% of Nike's revenue, third after North America and EMEA. Domestic rivals such as Anta and Li Ning have taken share. Sell-through has lagged plans. Nike is cutting shipments to clean a marketplace it flooded in prior years, which makes reported sales look worse before they look better. Friend has said China will take more time. Hill has pointed to more than 5,000 mono-brand stores that need investment and "distinct sport experiences." Running has grown there even as the total has fallen — a thin green shoot.

Hill's "Win Now" plan is familiar: fewer promotions, more product distinction, a return to wholesale partners after years of pushing consumers onto Nike.com, and a focus on running and football first. Inventory units have come down. That cleanup costs revenue now so it can stop costing margin later. Competitors Hoka and On did not wait for Nike to finish the clean-out.

Wall Street's posture matches the chart. Consensus is Hold, with targets clustered in the low $50s — a large percentage gap from $37 that assumes the second half of fiscal 2027 actually inflects. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2027 have been cut because the tariff refund does not repeat; analysts have talked about EPS near $1.71, down almost a fifth.

A $37 stock on a still-profitable $46 billion brand is not a bankruptcy price. It is a price that no longer pays for brand immortality. Every point of China decline and every quarter of Sportswear discounting chips the multiple. Hill has two jobs that pull against each other: keep the marketplace clean, which suppresses sales, and prove the logo still moves product at full price. Wednesday's 3% dip is not a new thesis. It is the old one, marked to a 52-week low while oil is high and sneakers are optional. The next earnings date will test whether running and North America can outrun China and streetwear. Until they do, $37.06 is what a turnaround looks like when the results, in the chief executive's words, are not there yet.