AMSTERDAM — Nebius Group N.V. shares surged more than 7% Thursday to trade around $134.60 as investors bet big on the fast-growing AI cloud provider's landmark infrastructure contracts with hyperscalers and fresh Wall Street coverage highlighting its role in the artificial intelligence buildout.

Nebius Group N.V.
Nebius Group N.V.

The NASDAQ-listed company (NBIS) climbed as high as $141 intraday Thursday, extending a blistering rally that has seen the stock deliver more than 430% gains over the past year. The momentum accelerated this week following Cantor Fitzgerald's initiation of coverage with an Overweight rating and a $129 price target, while broader optimism around AI infrastructure spending lifted related names amid easing geopolitical tensions.

Nebius, the restructured international AI infrastructure business formerly tied to Yandex, has emerged as a pure-play beneficiary of exploding demand for GPU-powered cloud capacity. The company operates advanced data centers optimized for large-scale AI training and inference, leveraging high-density compute clusters built around NVIDIA hardware.

In its most recent earnings released Feb. 12, Nebius reported explosive fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $227.7 million, up 547% from a year earlier, though it missed analyst expectations of roughly $243 million to $247 million. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $529.8 million, a 479% jump from $91.5 million in 2024. The company swung to an adjusted EBITDA profit of $15 million in the quarter from a prior loss, while posting a net loss of $249.6 million driven by heavy capital expenditures.

Management highlighted strong execution, with year-end annualized recurring revenue (ARR) hitting $1.25 billion — beating its own guidance range of $900 million to $1.1 billion. Active power capacity stood at 170 MW by year-end, ahead of internal targets.

For 2026, Nebius guided to revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, with ARR projected at $7 billion to $9 billion and adjusted EBITDA margins approaching 40% in the back half of the year as utilization ramps. The aggressive outlook reflects rapid deployment of new GPU clusters and long-term capacity agreements.

The biggest catalyst has been a string of mega-deals underscoring Nebius's growing clout in the neocloud space. In March, the company announced a landmark agreement with Meta Platforms valued at up to $27 billion over five years. The pact includes $12 billion in committed dedicated AI infrastructure capacity starting in 2027, plus up to $15 billion in additional capacity purchases. The deal ranks among the largest infrastructure commitments Meta has made and validates Nebius's ability to secure hyperscale anchor tenants.

Nebius has also secured significant business with Microsoft and other large customers, contributing to a reported backlog of committed capacity deals exceeding $45 billion when including potential expansions. In March, NVIDIA made a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius to support next-generation hyperscale AI cloud infrastructure, providing both capital and a powerful endorsement from the GPU market leader.

The company is aggressively scaling its footprint. Plans include construction of one of Europe's largest AI campuses in Finland with 310 MW capacity and multiple new data centers across Europe and North America. Nebius aims to deploy advanced systems including NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 platforms in 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to run between $16 billion and $20 billion this year to fuel the expansion, funded in part by a $4.3 billion convertible notes offering completed in March and its strong cash position of approximately $3.68 billion.

Analysts have grown increasingly bullish. Consensus ratings lean toward Moderate Buy to Strong Buy, with an average price target around $154 to $171, implying 15% to 27% upside from recent levels. Some firms see even higher potential, with targets reaching $215 or more if execution on capacity deployment stays on track. Northland Securities and BofA have issued positive calls, while Cantor's fresh Overweight initiation Thursday helped spark the latest leg higher.

"Nebius is one of the few scaled players capable of delivering dedicated AI infrastructure at the speed and density hyperscalers require," one analyst noted following the Meta announcement. The company's vertically integrated approach — controlling power, facilities, networking and GPU clusters — gives it an edge over traditional cloud providers facing allocation constraints.

Still, risks are substantial. Nebius remains deeply unprofitable on a GAAP basis and is burning significant cash on capex. Free cash flow turned deeply negative in recent quarters as the company races to bring new capacity online. Execution challenges include securing sufficient NVIDIA GPUs amid industry-wide shortages, navigating regulatory and grid hurdles for data center builds, and delivering on ambitious utilization targets.

Competition is intensifying from established players like CoreWeave as well as hyperscalers expanding their own infrastructure. Nebius's heavy reliance on a handful of large customers also introduces concentration risk, though long-term contracts provide revenue visibility.

The stock's valuation has expanded dramatically alongside its growth narrative. Trading at elevated multiples on forward sales, the shares reflect expectations of triple-digit revenue growth for several years. Market capitalization now exceeds $30 billion, up sharply from levels seen just months ago.

Thursday's gains came on elevated volume, with shares breaking toward recent highs near $141. The rally builds on a more than 25% year-to-date advance in 2026 and follows positive commentary from market influencers, including Jim Cramer highlighting data center expansion trends.

Nebius executives expressed confidence in the outlook. Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh has described 2025 as the company's "first full year of operations" marked by exceptional growth. Management is focused on converting its massive pipeline into contracted revenue while maintaining capital discipline where possible.

The company continues to innovate on its AI Cloud platform, recently introducing serverless AI capabilities and acquiring assets like Tavily to enhance agentic search features. These moves aim to broaden appeal beyond raw compute to higher-value AI services.

As artificial intelligence capital spending by Big Tech surges — with combined forecasts for major hyperscalers topping hundreds of billions in 2026 — providers like Nebius that can deliver scarce, high-performance GPU capacity are commanding premium attention.

Whether the current momentum sustains will depend on upcoming milestones: progress on data center deployments, potential new customer wins, and the May earnings report (estimated around late April to mid-May) that could provide further color on 2026 ramp. Analysts will scrutinize utilization rates, gross margins and capex efficiency.

Nebius Group employs a growing global team and operates from its base in Amsterdam while maintaining data centers across multiple continents. Originally emerging from the international assets of the former Yandex group after geopolitical restructuring, the company has fully repositioned as an independent AI infrastructure leader.

For investors, Nebius represents a high-beta play on the AI theme — offering explosive upside potential but with commensurate volatility and execution risk. The combination of secured mega-deals, NVIDIA backing and aggressive capacity buildout has turned it into one of the more compelling stories in the AI supply chain.

As Thursday's trading showed, sentiment remains firmly in growth mode. With power capacity expanding rapidly and long-term contracts providing a foundation, Nebius appears well-placed to capture a meaningful slice of the AI infrastructure market — provided it can navigate the capital-intensive path ahead.

Shares closed Wednesday near $125 before powering higher. By mid-afternoon Thursday, they traded around $134.60 with strong participation from momentum and growth-oriented funds.