Roch Cholowsky
Roch Cholowsky

The 2026 MLB draft begins Saturday at 1 p.m. Eastern time, with the Chicago White Sox still weighing three top prospects for the first overall pick just hours before selections get underway, according to ESPN's final mock draft published Saturday morning.

The White Sox have narrowed their choice to a tier of three players: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. All three are expected to come off the board within the draft's first three picks, though the order remained unsettled as of Saturday morning, according to ESPN draft analyst Kiley McDaniel, who noted that bonus discussions for the top picks had not been finalized as of Thursday.

McDaniel's projection has the White Sox ultimately selecting Cholowsky, followed by the Tampa Bay Rays taking Emerson at No. 2 and the Minnesota Twins landing Lackey at No. 3. McDaniel wrote that the deciding factor between Cholowsky and Emerson likely comes down to a preference for proximity to the majors and reduced risk, an edge he gives to Cholowsky over the high school shortstop. Lackey, a catcher who started competitive baseball relatively late and carries added positional demands, is expected to fall just behind the other two despite drawing strong interest from Tampa Bay.

After the top three picks, McDaniel described the remainder of the first round as far more unpredictable, with talent evaluators across the league split on how a wide-open group of prospects will be sorted. Saturday morning brought a round of late changes to the top 13 picks based on fresh information gathered ahead of the draft, altering seven of the slots from McDaniel's earlier Friday projection.

Those late shifts included the San Francisco Giants moving toward Oak Grove High School (Mississippi) outfielder Eric Booth Jr. at No. 4, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora sliding to the Baltimore Orioles at No. 7, and the Kansas City Royals now projected to take Huntington Beach High School (California) two-way player Jared Grindlinger at No. 6. The Colorado Rockies were moved into position to select Gulliver Prep (Florida) shortstop Jacob Lombard at No. 10, a name McDaniel described as carrying legitimate star potential that would represent a strong outcome for the Rockies' new front-office regime if he actually falls that far.

Several teams face decisions shaped as much by bonus-pool strategy as by pure talent evaluation. McDaniel noted a real possibility that all of the draft's first 10 picks, and potentially more, could come in below their assigned slot values, a dynamic that could ripple through the rest of the first two rounds as teams look to redirect savings toward later selections. The Pittsburgh Pirates, for instance, are projected to bypass Flora at No. 5 in favor of Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, a college position player McDaniel said the Pirates prefer given their organizational depth in young pitching.

Catching prospect Daniel Jackson of Georgia, this year's Golden Spikes Award-caliber talent by some evaluations, is expected to land somewhere in the 20s despite ranking 20th on McDaniel's overall board, with the Houston Astros representing his most likely first real landing spot at No. 17. Georgia Tech's Jacob Lombard, by contrast, carries some risk in evaluators' eyes due to concerns about swing-and-miss tendencies that emerged over the summer, a factor that could push him lower than his talent level might otherwise suggest.

The second half of the first round is expected to feature a heavy run on college pitching, according to McDaniel's reporting, with names such as Arkansas left-hander Hunter Dietz, Florida right-hander Liam Peterson, USC left-hander Mason Edwards and Coastal Carolina right-hander Cameron Flukey all in play across a stretch of picks in the middle and back of the round. Flukey, in particular, has slid somewhat in draft evaluations after missing much of the spring season with a strained rib, though McDaniel noted his traits could still appeal to a development-focused organization such as the Milwaukee Brewers, who are projected to select him at No. 25.

One notable subplot entering the draft's back half involves the Pittsburgh Pirates' second first-round selection, No. 34 overall, which was traded to the Chicago White Sox on Friday night. McDaniel reported that at least half a dozen teams had inquired about acquiring the pick over the past month, with the going asking price described as a good major league relief pitcher. Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns was linked to that slot in McDaniel's projection, with one evaluator comparing his ceiling to that of Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby if a team's development staff can help him reach his potential.

Beyond the top of the draft, McDaniel's rankings identified a group of top-graded prospects who may ultimately bypass professional baseball entirely in favor of college commitments due to difficult signability situations. That group includes Auburn commit and right-hander Coleman Borthwick, Tennessee-bound catcher Sean Dunlap, Duke commit and shortstop James Clark, and a cluster of Vanderbilt commitments including shortstop James Tronstein, right-hander Joseph Contreras and left-hander Bo Holloway, along with Stanford-bound right-hander Bryce Hill and LSU commit Jensen Hirschkorn.

A separate group of high school prospects were described as genuine tossups between turning professional and honoring college commitments, contingent largely on where they land and what bonus figures teams are willing to offer. That list includes Florida State commit and shortstop Landon Thome, son of Baseball Hall of Famer Jim Thome, along with Texas-bound left-hander Brody Bumila, who was recently revealed to be dealing with an injury, Florida State-committed right-hander Kaden Waechter, Auburn commit and shortstop Jace Mataczynski, and Mississippi State-bound outfielder Martin Shelar.

With bonus-pool strategy, medical questions and a historically unsettled top tier all still in flux hours before the draft, McDaniel cautioned that his projections reflect his best read of team intentions rather than certainty, noting specifically that the White Sox's pick at No. 1 "isn't finished" as of Saturday morning. The draft's opening two rounds are scheduled to unfold Saturday afternoon, with the remaining rounds continuing over the following two days.