Poland Votes In Tight Election As Europe Watches

Poland voted on Sunday in a tight presidential election that will be decisive for the future of the country's pro-EU government as well as for abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 30 percent of the vote, according to opinion polls, ahead of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki on 25 percent.

That would put both through to a run-off on June 1 at a fraught moment for Europe. Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on, far-right populists continue to make electoral gains and ties with Washington are under strain.

Voting ends at 9:00 pm (1900 GMT), when exit polls are expected. The final official results of the contest, in which 13 candidates are running, are expected on Monday.

"These are very important elections," voter Marcin Woloszynski, a 42-year-old economist, told AFP.

"They offer two diametrically opposed visions of Poland... a democratic, European, open, confident, honest Poland on one side, and the opposite on the other," he said after casting his ballot in Warsaw, where support for Trzaskowski is particularly high.

Ever since Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition came to power in 2023, key government initiatives have been blocked by vetoes from nationalist President Andrzej Duda.

The electoral campaign in Poland -- a member of both the European Union and NATO -- has largely revolved around foreign policy, showcasing a clash of philosophies over Poland's engagement with the EU and the United States.

But social issues have also played a major part.

Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to support abortion and LGBTQ rights.

"These elections are about rights for women and minorities, rights for children and animals," said Anna Rusztynska-Wolska, a 69-year-old doctor, after voting.

"They are about security in the European Union and in the world because the more Poland is a country that respects the rule of law (and is) rich and well-managed, the better it will be for all of us," she said.

The former ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), which backs Nawrocki, was frequently at odds with Poland's Western allies and EU institutions in Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.

Nawrocki, 42, is an admirer of US President Donald Trump. He said Trump told him: "You will win" when they met at the White House earlier this month.

The key to the election could be whether supporters of Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right candidate polling in third position with around 12 percent, cast their ballots for Nawrocki in the second round.

Mentzen is a eurosceptic libertarian staunchly opposed to abortion and migrants.

He has accused the country's one million Ukrainian refugees of taking advantage of Poland.

Echoing some of Mentzen's rhetoric, self-employed 25-year-old Radoslaw Wiecek said he did not want Poland to be "totally subject to the EU".

Speaking on the eve of the vote, Wiecek said he wanted "a fresh wind" to end the dominance of the two main political groups -- Law and Justice and the Civic Coalition (KO) that backs Trzaskowski.

For Anna Urbanska, a 74-year-old pensioner, the key electoral issue is immigration, which has risen sharply in recent years.

"I don't want these immigrants to be allowed in here, in Poland. I want us to be able to live more peacefully," she said.

The governing coalition is hopeful a victory by Trzaskowski would enable it to fulfil its hitherto undelivered campaign pledges.

Tusk's administration has been prevented from easing Poland's stringent abortion laws and introducing other changes by the president's power of veto, to the disappointment of some voters.

Poland's head of state is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steers foreign policy and can introduce and veto legislation.

"With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition," said political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska.

His victory could mean "the return of the populists with renewed force" at the next general election, she told AFP.

The stakes are high for Europe.

Under Tusk, a former EU leader, Poland has grown more important on the continent, reinforcing its position as a key voice on NATO's eastern flank against Russia.

Materska-Sosnowska said the ballot was fundamental for "attempts to stop the anti-democratic, populist trend running through Europe".