Strait of Hormuz Remains Severely Restricted as Tanker Attacks Continue and Traffic Stays Near 10% of Normal

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed to all shipping, but commercial traffic is running at roughly one-tenth of pre-crisis levels and attacks on vessels have continued into this week, according to maritime tracking services and agency reports.

Live AIS monitoring by hormuz.now showed the status as "Restricted" on Oct. 13, day 228 of the crisis. AIS-visible commercial crossings averaged 8.4 a day over the past week, against 84.8 before the crisis began. In the most recent 24-hour period the service recorded three crossings. IMF PortWatch satellite data, which lags by several days, recorded even lower tanker numbers in early October. Some ships sail with transponders off, so all counts understate total movement.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency issued reports covering six vessels struck on Oct. 11 — five tankers and a container ship — with additional strikes reported on subsequent days. Two outbound tankers were hit by projectiles inside the strait on Oct. 10 and 11, with fires reported and crews safe. The IRGC Navy claimed on Oct. 12 that it set a supertanker on fire for attempting to leave the strait with its navigation system off and ignoring warnings. The claim has not been independently confirmed. UKMTO also reported a drone strike on a tanker near Oman's Sohar anchorage.

Iran maintains that it controls the strait and requires transit permits. Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the IRGC commander, was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying, "The Strait of Hormuz is closed and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it." Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said on Oct. 11 that the U.S. response to Iran's seven conditions for reopening the strait was "insufficient" and that Tehran would stop responding through the current channel. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was still reviewing the U.S. response and would reply through intermediaries.

The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre said the pattern of attacks showed Iran's "intent to assert [its] presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels." Some commercial crossings continue under U.S. naval coordination. A U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has been in force since mid-July. On Oct. 11 the U.S. military said it disabled a cargo vessel that ignored warnings and attempted to run the blockade.

Oil flows have fluctuated. Kpler data cited by CNN put average daily oil and product movement through the strait at about 13.1 million barrels per day at the end of September, roughly 80 percent of the pre-crisis 17.1 million. The figure has fallen this month. Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel and reached near $107 in recent sessions.

Hundreds of commercial ships remain stationary near the strait. hormuz.now counted 772 commercial vessels in the region on Oct. 13, of which 640 were below 1 knot, with 469 waiting on the Gulf of Oman side and 168 on the Persian Gulf side. War-risk insurance premiums remain many times normal levels, pricing out most routine operators.

The wider regional context includes continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh has been closed after strikes that killed at least 12 people and injured more than 300. Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers spoke by phone on Oct. 12. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered to help facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The United States has not announced a change in its naval posture in the strait.

No agreement to restore normal free transit has been announced. The physical waterway remains open to vessels that accept the current conditions of coordination, permits or darkness. The volume of those vessels is a fraction of the pre-crisis average, and the frequency of attacks has not declined. That is the status as of Oct. 13.