Hertz Stock Soars 10% on Surging Rental Demand and Used Car Prices as Q1 Earnings Loom

ESTERO, Fla. — Shares of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. jumped more than 10% Thursday as investors piled into the car rental giant amid signs of strengthening travel demand and a sharp rebound in used vehicle values that could ease fleet depreciation pressures ahead of the company's first-quarter 2026 earnings report next month.

The stock climbed as high as $6.69 midday before pulling back slightly, trading near $6.55 in afternoon action — up roughly $0.60 or about 10% from Wednesday's close. Volume surged well above average, with more than 11 million shares changing hands by early afternoon as the broader market digested mixed economic signals.

Hertz, operator of the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty brands, has been navigating a challenging post-pandemic landscape marked by high fleet costs, aggressive EV investments that later scaled back, and volatile travel patterns. The latest rally reflects growing optimism that operational improvements and external tailwinds — including airport disruptions and rising resale values for used cars — could support a turnaround.

Analysts noted that recent airport security delays tied to staffing shortages at the Transportation Security Administration boosted last-minute car rental demand as frustrated travelers opted to drive instead of fly. Hertz reported a notable spike in website traffic and bookings, with some promotions including discounts helping capture the surge.

Adding fuel to the move, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in March 2026, reaching its highest level since mid-2023. For Hertz, which maintains a massive fleet of hundreds of thousands of vehicles, higher used-car prices translate directly to lower depreciation expenses — one of the company's largest costs. Management has targeted depreciation per unit below $300 per month, and recent trends suggest progress toward that goal.

The company expects to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, with a conference call to follow. Consensus forecasts point to revenue around $1.88 billion, up modestly year-over-year, though analysts anticipate another quarterly loss of roughly 77 cents per share. Hertz guided earlier for mid-single-digit revenue growth in the quarter, driven by improved revenue per day and a constructive pricing environment.

In its February release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, Hertz posted revenue of $2.03 billion for the final quarter, beating expectations, while narrowing its full-year net loss significantly from prior periods. Management highlighted sequential improvements in pricing, fleet utilization reaching 81% for the year, and successful procurement of 2026 model-year vehicles at favorable terms.

CEO Gil West has emphasized a "back-to-basics" strategy focused on core rental operations, cost discipline and optimizing the fleet mix. The company has reduced its earlier heavy bet on electric vehicles after facing high depreciation and charging infrastructure challenges, shifting instead toward a more balanced portfolio including gas-powered and specialty vehicles.

Recent strategic moves include preparations to add models like the INEOS Grenadier 4x4, potentially positioning Hertz as a leader in rugged rental options. The company also benefited from broader travel resilience, with leisure demand holding up despite economic uncertainty.

Wall Street's overall view remains cautious. The consensus rating sits at Hold or Reduce, with an average 12-month price target around $4.33 to $5.27 — well below current trading levels near $6.50. Some firms cite risks from ongoing macroeconomic pressures, potential slowdown in consumer spending and competition from rivals like Avis Budget Group.

Yet short-term momentum has been strong. The stock has gained more than 27% over the past four weeks and broken above its 200-day moving average for the first time in months, sparking talk of a short squeeze amid elevated call option activity. Bullish options flow and heavy trading volume underscored retail enthusiasm.

Hertz's market capitalization hovers near $2 billion, reflecting its volatile ride since emerging from bankruptcy years ago. The company carries substantial debt tied to its vehicle fleet, making liquidity and residual values critical metrics. Management has projected liquidity could dip below $1 billion mid-year before recovering above that level by year-end through improved free cash flow and financing.

Investors will scrutinize several factors in the upcoming earnings: revenue per day trends, fleet utilization rates, depreciation per unit performance, and any updated full-year guidance. Hertz previously targeted 3% to 6% adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026, with ambitions to reach $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2027.

Broader industry dynamics provide mixed signals. Travel demand has shown resilience, particularly in leisure segments, but corporate travel remains softer in some areas. Rising used-car prices offer relief on the cost side, yet new vehicle acquisition costs and interest rates on fleet financing remain headwinds. Hertz has secured commitments for 2026 vehicles, which should help stabilize expenses.

The company continues to face structural challenges. Legacy issues from aggressive EV expansion led to large losses on resale in prior periods. While Hertz has pivoted, execution on fleet management and pricing discipline will determine whether the current uptick translates into sustainable profitability.

Some activist interest has added intrigue. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a position in Hertz earlier in 2026, alongside stakes in other names, lending credibility to the turnaround narrative even as the stock trades at a fraction of its pandemic-era highs.

Technical analysts pointed to the recent breakout above key moving averages as potentially signaling further upside if volume sustains. However, with the stock still down significantly from its 52-week high near $9.39, valuation debates persist. Forward multiples remain elevated given ongoing losses, though improving margins could justify a rerating.

For income investors, Hertz offers no dividend, focusing instead on debt reduction and operational cash generation. The high-beta nature of the stock makes it sensitive to shifts in travel sentiment, fuel prices and economic data.

Looking ahead, the path to becoming a "buy" for more conservative investors likely hinges on consistent evidence of margin expansion and positive free cash flow trends. Near term, the combination of airport-driven demand spikes and used-car price strength has created a favorable setup, but sustainability remains unproven.

Hertz did not immediately comment beyond its scheduled earnings timeline. Company officials have stressed that 2026 represents a year of building momentum after completing fleet rotations and implementing revenue management initiatives.

As traders digest Thursday's surge, attention turns to whether this represents the start of a more durable recovery or another volatile chapter in Hertz's long restructuring story. With earnings just weeks away, the market will soon test whether operational progress matches the optimism priced into the shares.