Apple Shares Climb 1.6% As Analysts Split Over $1,999 iPhone Duo's Sales Potential Heading Into Holidays

CUPERTINO, Calif. — Shares of Apple Inc. rose $5.15, or 1.63%, to $320.49 as of 9:48 a.m. ET Thursday, recovering ground a day after the company unveiled its first foldable iPhone at a highly anticipated product event that drew a mixed initial reaction from Wall Street.

The gain follows a muted response to Wednesday's "Surprise and Shine" event, where new CEO John Ternus delivered his first keynote address since succeeding Tim Cook earlier this month. Apple shares actually closed down 0.28% on the day of the event itself, according to CNN Business, a reaction some analysts attributed to investor skepticism over how many consumers will ultimately be willing to pay premium prices for the company's newest device category.

The centerpiece of Wednesday's presentation was the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable smartphone, starting at $1,999 and reaching as high as $3,199 for the top storage configuration, or approximately $58 per month through Apple's newly introduced leasing program. Ternus drew a direct contrast with rival foldable devices during his presentation, describing competitors' offerings as resembling "two phones awkwardly stuck together" while positioning the Duo as a more refined alternative. Alongside the foldable, Apple also introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, AirPods 5, Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, while holding back the standard iPhone 18, a lower-priced iPhone 18e, and a rumored Air 2 model, which are expected to arrive in spring 2027.

Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster, one of the more closely watched voices covering Apple, significantly raised his sales expectations for the new device following the event. Munster doubled his estimate for the Duo's share of fiscal 2027 iPhone revenue from 5% to 10%, according to Stocktwits, and called the device Apple's most important new product since the AirPods launched in December 2016. Munster estimated that if roughly one-third of would-be iPhone 18 Pro Max buyers instead switch to the Duo, the device alone could lift overall iPhone revenue by 5% and total Apple revenue by 2.5% in fiscal 2027, not including additional upgrades from customers who might otherwise have purchased cheaper models.

Other analysts offered similarly bullish assessments. Citi maintained a Buy rating and $365 price target on Apple, describing the Duo as the "biggest new hardware category" since the Apple Watch and AirPods, according to Investing.com. Wedbush maintained an "outperform" rating with a $400 price target, while Tigress Financial reiterated a "strong buy" rating with a $375 target. Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target to $303 from $300 while maintaining a neutral stance.

Not every analyst shared that enthusiasm. Barclays maintained an "underweight" rating with a $245 price target, reflecting more significant skepticism about the device's near-term commercial prospects. Analyst Patrick Moorhead separately noted that Apple's underlying technology still "pulls up short" compared with the kind of transformative impact Nvidia has had within the broader AI hardware industry, according to Stocktwits' reporting.

Analyst Paolo Pescatore offered a more nuanced read on how the pricing structure across Apple's full fall lineup might actually work in the Duo's favor.

"Higher pricing across the premium iPhone 18 line-up could also sway some customers toward the foldable, narrowing the perceived jump to a completely new form factor," Pescatore said.

Longtime Apple analyst Dan Ives, founding partner of research and investment firm Yorkville Ives, told CNBC he views the Duo as potentially significant beyond its own individual sales performance.

Aggregated sentiment across Wall Street remains cautiously constructive rather than uniformly bullish. According to Parameter's compilation of 39 analysts, the consensus rating on Apple stock stands at "Moderate Buy," with an average 12-month price target of $331.53, implying meaningful but not dramatic upside from current trading levels.

Apple's underlying fundamentals heading into Wednesday's event remained strong. The company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, reported earlier this year, showed revenue of $109.42 billion, up 16.36% year over year, with earnings per share of $2.02 marking the company's ninth consecutive quarterly beat against analyst expectations. iPhone revenue climbed 22% during that quarter, while Mac revenue jumped 29%. Tim Cook, in his final earnings call before transitioning to executive chairman, described Apple's position at the time as benefiting from "an incredibly strong iPhone and Mac product cycle."

Historical patterns suggest Apple's stock may still have room to recover further in the weeks ahead. According to analysis from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan, Apple shares have historically shown a modest "sell the news" reaction immediately following major launch events before recovering over the subsequent 30 to 60 days. Mohan's research found that Apple stock has gained in the 60 days following an iPhone reveal 17 times dating back to the original 2007 smartphone launch, with the largest such gain reaching 20% following the iPhone 11 reveal in 2019.

Apple shares enter the post-event period having already posted strong gains for the year, up 16.31% year to date and 35.06% over the trailing 12 months, according to 24/7 Wall St., even after cooling 2.96% in the week immediately preceding Wednesday's launch. The stock's 52-week range spans from $225.82 to $344.27, illustrating the significant swings in sentiment surrounding the company over the past year.

With options markets pricing in outsized potential volatility in the days following the event, and analyst price targets ranging as widely as $245 to $400 depending on the firm, investors are likely to continue closely parsing early consumer demand signals for the iPhone Duo, including preorder activity when it begins Oct. 16, as the clearest indicator of whether Apple's first foldable device can meet the ambitious revenue expectations several prominent analysts have now attached to it heading into the crucial holiday shopping season.