Viasat Stock 2026: Buy or Sell Amid Satellite Growth and Recent Earnings Miss?

NEW YORK — Viasat Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT), a leader in satellite communications, has captured investor interest in 2026 as the company expands its ViaSat-3 constellation and pursues opportunities in aviation connectivity and government contracts. Trading near $80-$86 in late May, the stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus from analysts, though recent revenue misses and elevated valuations have sparked debate over whether it represents a compelling entry point or carries heightened risks.

The Carlsbad, California-based company reported mixed fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results in late May. Revenue for the quarter reached approximately $1.17 billion in recent periods, showing modest year-over-year growth but falling short of some analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA remained solid, yet the company posted a small net loss amid ongoing investments in next-generation satellite technology.

Viasat has made significant progress with its ViaSat-3 program. The launch of ViaSat-3 Flight 3 in April 2026 expanded global coverage, particularly in high-demand regions. The company also reached a milestone of 1,000 aircraft equipped with its SB-S service and secured major contracts, including a $437.7 million U.S. Air Force award.

Analyst sentiment remains generally constructive despite valuation concerns. Across 9-10 covering firms, the consensus stands at Moderate Buy, with multiple Buy ratings and a smaller number of Holds and Sells. Average 12-month price targets range from approximately $67 to $83, implying modest downside from current levels, though optimistic targets reach as high as $106.

Recent adjustments include B. Riley raising its target to $106 from $94 while maintaining a Buy rating, and Raymond James lifting to $93. These moves reflect confidence in Viasat's long-term satellite broadband expansion and direct-to-device opportunities. However, some models flag the stock as potentially overvalued, with fair value estimates around $51 in certain analyses.

For bulls, the investment thesis centers on Viasat's positioning in the growing satellite communications market. Demand for in-flight connectivity, maritime services and government applications continues to expand. The company's multi-year backlog and strategic partnerships, including potential spectrum-related opportunities, provide revenue visibility. Management has guided for mid-single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2027.

Viasat's capital investments in advanced satellites and ground infrastructure position it to capture share in a market increasingly competitive with low-Earth orbit providers. Success in aviation and defense segments could drive margin expansion and free cash flow improvement over time.

Bear cases highlight execution risks and cyclical pressures. Recent quarterly misses on revenue and earnings have raised questions about near-term integration challenges and heavy capital expenditures. The stock's sharp run-up over the past year has left it vulnerable to profit-taking, with some technical indicators showing overbought conditions.

Valuation remains a key consideration. Trading at multiples above historical averages, the stock reflects optimism around satellite growth but leaves limited room for disappointment. Customer concentration in certain segments and regulatory hurdles in spectrum allocation add layers of uncertainty.

Financially, Viasat has improved its balance sheet and generated positive free cash flow in recent periods. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue approached $4.64 billion, with adjusted EBITDA reaching record levels. However, net losses persist amid depreciation and investment spending.

Broader industry trends support a constructive longer-term outlook. Rising demand for broadband connectivity in remote areas, aviation recovery and defense modernization favor established players like Viasat. Yet competition from SpaceX's Starlink and other entrants intensifies pressure on pricing and market share.

Portfolio managers often view VSAT as a thematic satellite communications holding within technology or infrastructure allocations. Position sizing should account for volatility typical of growth-oriented names with significant capex programs. Near-term catalysts include progress on ViaSat-3 deployments and updates on commercial aviation deals.

Risks include potential delays in satellite launches, integration challenges following acquisitions, and macroeconomic impacts on customer spending. Geopolitical factors affecting government contracts also warrant monitoring.

In the current environment, Viasat exemplifies both the promise and challenges of the satellite sector. While not without risks inherent to capital-intensive technology companies, the firm's strategic initiatives and analyst support tilt many toward accumulation for those with longer horizons and high risk tolerance. Conservative investors may await pullbacks or clearer evidence of margin recovery.

The decision to buy or sell ultimately depends on individual investment goals, portfolio diversification and tolerance for execution risk in a competitive industry. As always, thorough due diligence and consultation with financial advisors are recommended before making decisions in this dynamic sector. The coming quarters of satellite deployment and commercial traction will likely prove pivotal for Viasat's trajectory through 2026 and beyond.