Ondas Holdings Inc. shares have experienced sharp volatility in February 2026, climbing from sub-$10 levels earlier in the year to trade around $10 amid a flurry of defense and security contracts, strategic acquisitions, and an aggressive revenue outlook for the year, as the company positions itself as a leader in autonomous drone systems and private wireless networks.

Ondas
Ondas

As of February 23, 2026, Ondas (NASDAQ: ONDS) closed at $10.19, up 1.60% on the day after fluctuating between $9.86 and $10.57 in heavy trading volume of nearly 69 million shares—below recent averages but still elevated. The stock has shown significant swings, dropping 11.94% on February 20 to $10.03 from $11.39 amid profit-taking, yet it remains up substantially year-to-date following a massive rally driven by defense sector momentum and AI-enabled robotics developments.

The surge reflects investor enthusiasm for Ondas' transformation into a multi-domain autonomy platform through its Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) unit. In January 2026, the company hosted an OAS Investor Day, raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $170 million to $180 million—a 25% increase from its prior $140 million target (which included contributions from the acquired Roboteam). Preliminary 2025 results showed Q4 revenue of $27 million to $29 million (up 51% from earlier guidance) and full-year revenue of $47.6 million to $49.6 million, representing explosive growth from prior periods. The company exited 2025 with a backlog exceeding $65.3 million—up 180% from November—and pro-forma cash reserves over $1.5 billion following a major equity raise.

Analysts have responded positively to the momentum. HC Wainwright boosted its price target from $12 to $25 in February 2026 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing a robust sales pipeline exceeding $500 million and expanding opportunities in counter-UAS, defense, and security. Other firms, including Lake Street (target raised to $19), Stifel (to $18), and Northland Securities (Buy reaffirmed), have echoed bullish views. Consensus among 8-9 analysts rates ONDS a Strong Buy to Moderate Buy, with average 12-month price targets ranging from $17.29 to $19.00—implying 70-90% upside from current levels. High-end targets reach $25, reflecting confidence in margin expansion toward 50% gross margins in 2026 as scale improves.

Key drivers include a string of high-profile contracts and acquisitions bolstering the defense and security portfolio. In February 2026, subsidiary Sentrycs secured a contract with German state police for counter-drone technology. Airobotics, part of OAS, landed a multi-million-dollar order for its Iron Drone Raider counter-UAS system. Ondas' 4M Defense unit won a $30 million multi-year demining program, while additional deals emerged in the Asia-Pacific region. These wins highlight growing demand for autonomous systems in counter-threat and critical infrastructure protection amid geopolitical tensions.

Strategic moves further support the narrative. Ondas announced plans to acquire U.K.-based Rotron Aero in a cash-and-stock transaction in early February 2026, enhancing its drone propulsion and engineering capabilities. The company also highlighted its evolving multi-domain robotics strategy, including American Robotics' Optimus drone achieving Blue List status for beyond-visual-line-of-sight operations. Partnerships and showcases, such as a UXS event with Baltic Ghost Wing, underscore international expansion.

Ondas Networks, the private wireless segment, continues to provide foundational connectivity for industrial and utility applications, complementing the autonomy focus. Management emphasizes transitioning from specialized drone providers to a comprehensive platform integrating AI, edge processing, and secure communications—positioning the company to capitalize on rising defense budgets and commercial autonomy adoption.

Despite the optimism, volatility persists. Shares have traded in wide ranges, with recent sessions seeing swings of 10-16% amid high volume—often on falling prices, signaling potential short-term risks. The stock's market cap hovers around $4.5 billion, a dramatic increase from earlier levels, reflecting speculative interest in the drone and defense tech theme. Critics note execution risks in scaling production, integrating acquisitions, and achieving profitability amid ongoing losses (trailing EPS around -$0.36).

Upcoming catalysts include full Q4 and 2025 earnings, expected in mid-March 2026, where detailed backlog conversion, margin progress, and refined 2026 guidance will be scrutinized. Positive updates on contract deployments and cash burn could sustain the rally; any delays might trigger pullbacks.

Ondas stands at the intersection of defense modernization, AI autonomy, and critical infrastructure resilience. Its rapid revenue ramp, contract wins, and platform strategy have transformed it from a niche player into a high-growth contender. Investors betting on sustained defense spending and autonomy adoption view current levels as attractive despite volatility, while the company's cash position provides runway for further growth initiatives.

As global threats evolve and industries embrace unmanned systems, Ondas' integrated approach could drive long-term value—though near-term price action will likely remain tied to execution and market sentiment in this high-beta sector.