NEW YORK — As the 2026 MLB season approaches the one-quarter mark, the races for the American League and National League Cy Young Awards are already taking shape, with a pair of standout aces emerging as clear frontrunners while several other pitchers position themselves for late surges.

New York Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler and Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes lead most early betting odds and expert polls, but a deep group of contenders keeps both races highly competitive. Here are the top five Cy Young candidates as of mid-May 2026, based on current performance, advanced metrics and expert consensus.

Cam Schlittle
Cam Schlittle

1. Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees (AL Favorite)

Schlittler has burst onto the scene as the early AL leader, boasting a sparkling 1.35 ERA through nine starts with a 5-1 record and 59 strikeouts. The 24-year-old right-hander has been nothing short of dominant for the Yankees, posting elite command and missing bats at an impressive rate. His combination of velocity, sharp breaking stuff and composure under pressure has many analysts calling him the clear favorite at +230 odds.

Yankees fans and opponents alike have taken notice of his ability to limit hard contact and work deep into games. If Schlittler maintains this level, he could become the first Yankees pitcher to win the Cy Young since CC Sabathia in 2007.

2. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (NL Favorite)

The defending NL Cy Young winner remains the man to beat in the senior circuit. Skenes has picked up right where he left off, delivering electric stuff and elite results that have him at +200 odds. The 23-year-old's unique pitch mix — highlighted by a triple-digit fastball and devastating slider — continues to overwhelm hitters, making him one of the most exciting young arms in baseball.

While a few challengers have closed the gap slightly, Skenes' consistency and dominance keep him atop most NL Cy Young projections. A repeat victory would mark a historic achievement for the Pirates franchise.

3. Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

Cease has reinvented himself in Toronto, posting strong numbers that place him firmly in the AL Cy Young conversation at +240 odds. His strikeout ability and improved command have made him a consistent force, giving the Blue Jays a true ace at the top of their rotation. Cease's experience in big moments adds credibility to his candidacy as the season progresses.

4. Max Fried, New York Yankees

Fried's move to the Yankees has paid immediate dividends. The veteran left-hander sits near the top of the AL leaderboard with a sub-3.00 ERA and excellent peripherals. His polished approach, pinpoint control and ability to induce weak contact make him a steady presence in a stacked Yankees rotation. Fried is currently listed around +300 to +330 in early odds.

5. Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Soriano has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season, emerging as a legitimate Cy Young contender with a sub-2.00 ERA in limited starts. The Angels right-hander's stuff has always been electric, but improved health and command have taken his game to another level. At longer odds around +1000 to +1200, Soriano represents the classic boom candidate who could make a serious run if he stays healthy.

Other Names to Watch

Several other pitchers remain firmly in the mix. In the AL, Jacob deGrom continues defying age with electric stuff when healthy, while Hunter Brown and Garrett Crochet provide strong upside. In the NL, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale are all capable of climbing the leaderboard with hot streaks.

Shohei Ohtani's two-way excellence also draws attention, though his pitching workload remains carefully managed. Early Cy Young polls show familiar names at the top, but the season is long and injuries or hot streaks can quickly reshape the race.

What Separates the Contenders

Modern Cy Young voting increasingly values advanced metrics like FIP, xERA, strikeout rates and innings pitched alongside traditional wins and ERA. Durability has become crucial in an era of pitcher management and workload limits. The top candidates this season excel at limiting hard contact while missing bats at high rates — skills that translate well in today's analytics-driven game.

Voters also consider team context. Pitchers carrying weaker rosters often receive extra credit, while those on loaded contenders must post truly exceptional numbers to stand out. This dynamic makes the current races particularly intriguing as mid-May frontrunners look to separate themselves before the All-Star break.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

While Schlittler and Skenes currently lead the way, the Cy Young races are far from decided. A strong two-month stretch by any of the top contenders — or an injury to a frontrunner — could dramatically shift the odds. History shows that consistency over a full season ultimately decides these awards more than early dominance.

For baseball fans, the 2026 Cy Young races offer compelling storylines: youth versus experience, power pitchers versus command artists, and breakout candidates versus established stars. As the season unfolds, every start from these aces will be scrutinized as they chase one of the game's highest individual honors.

The beauty of the Cy Young race lies in its unpredictability. While Schlittler and Skenes currently hold the edge, the summer months will test their endurance and separate the true elites from the rest of a very talented field. By October, one pitcher in each league will stand alone as the game's best — but getting there will require excellence night after night in a long and demanding season.

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