GUANGZHOU, China — Shares of XPeng Inc. climbed sharply on Friday, closing up 6% at $17.32 on the New York Stock Exchange, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Chinese electric vehicle maker's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report scheduled for March 20.

XPeng Inc
XPeng Inc

The advance came despite recent mixed delivery figures and ongoing pressures in China's highly competitive EV market. XPeng's American depositary shares rose from a previous close of $16.34, with trading volume exceeding 9.5 million shares. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped slightly to around $17.20.

The rally reflects growing optimism about XPeng's trajectory into 2026, even as short-term challenges persist. The company, known for its focus on smart electric vehicles equipped with advanced AI and autonomous driving features, has set ambitious delivery targets for the coming year while deepening partnerships that could bolster its technology edge.

XPeng's stock has shown volatility in early 2026, hitting a 52-week low of $15.38 in early March before rebounding. The shares peaked at $28.24 in November 2025, underscoring the sector's sensitivity to delivery reports, policy shifts and global EV demand.

Analysts are closely watching the upcoming earnings release, which will cover the October-to-December 2025 period. XPeng has guided for fourth-quarter revenues between 21.5 billion yuan and 23 billion yuan (approximately $3 billion to $3.2 billion), representing a 33.5% to 42.8% increase from the prior year. Vehicle deliveries for the quarter are projected at 125,000 to 132,000 units, up 36.6% to 44.3% year-over-year.

The company has emphasized its path toward profitability, with management previously signaling that the fourth quarter could mark a key milestone in achieving breakeven or positive results on a single-quarter basis. In the third quarter of 2025, XPeng narrowed its net loss to 380 million yuan, the lowest in five years, amid cost controls and higher-margin model sales.

Recent monthly delivery updates have presented a mixed picture. January 2026 saw 20,011 vehicles delivered, a 47% drop from December 2025 levels, influenced by seasonal factors. February figures fell 49.9% year-over-year to 15,256 units, partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Despite the declines, XPeng highlighted the global rollout of its P7+ model as a positive development for international expansion.

For full-year 2025, XPeng delivered 429,445 vehicles, providing a baseline for its aggressive 2026 outlook. The company aims to deliver between 550,000 and 600,000 units next year, implying 28% to 40% growth. International shipments are expected to double from about 45,000 in 2025, as XPeng pushes into markets beyond China.

A key driver of long-term optimism is XPeng's collaboration with Volkswagen. The German automaker's adoption of XPeng's autonomous driving technology has been viewed as validation of its AI capabilities, though it contributed to an 8% stock drop in one recent session amid concerns over competitive dynamics.

Analysts generally maintain a positive stance. The consensus 12-month price target for XPEV stands at around $25.78, suggesting potential upside of nearly 49% from current levels, based on input from 13 analysts. Targets range from a low of $17 to a high of $34. Goldman Sachs, for instance, raised its target to $25 in late 2025, citing expected 40% revenue growth in 2026 from new model launches and contributions from the Volkswagen partnership.

XPeng plans to introduce seven new dual-energy models and three overseas-specific models in 2026, including mid- and small-sized SUVs, to broaden its portfolio and appeal to diverse customer segments.

The broader Chinese EV sector remains intense, with domestic rivals such as BYD, Li Auto and NIO vying for market share through aggressive pricing and innovation. Global factors, including supply chain issues, regulatory changes in key export markets and fluctuating demand for electric vehicles, continue to influence sentiment.

XPeng, founded in 2014 and headquartered in Guangzhou, differentiates itself through its emphasis on intelligent features, including its XNGP autonomous driving system. The company trades on both the NYSE (XPEV) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (9868).

Investors await the March 20 earnings call, set for 8 a.m. ET, for detailed insights into margins, cash flow and updated guidance. Management has stressed disciplined execution and technological leadership as pillars for sustainable growth amid industry headwinds.

As XPeng navigates this pivotal period, its stock performance will likely hinge on delivering against ambitious targets while managing costs in a price-sensitive market. The recent uptick suggests some investors are betting on positive surprises in the forthcoming report and stronger momentum in 2026.