Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares closed at $396.73 on March 6, 2026, down $8.82 or 2.17% from the prior session, amid ongoing investor scrutiny over the electric vehicle maker's transition from traditional auto sales to AI-driven autonomy and robotics. After-hours trading pushed the price lower to around $394.69, reflecting continued pressure as the company approaches a critical March 9 regulatory submission to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

The robotaxi launch will use a Tesla Model Y compact SUV, as the Cybercab is still under development
AFP

The latest decline caps a choppy start to March for TSLA, which opened the month near $392–$405 levels before sliding. Trading volume on March 6 reached approximately 64 million shares, with the day's range between $394.21 and $402.35. Tesla's market capitalization stands at roughly $1.49 trillion, positioning it among the world's most valuable companies despite recent headwinds in core vehicle deliveries.

Year-to-date in 2026, the stock has declined about 11.78%, trading well below its 52-week high of $498.83 reached in late December 2025. The 52-week low remains $214.25, underscoring the stock's high volatility with a beta around 2.0, making it sensitive to broader market sentiment and company-specific developments.

Analysts attribute much of the recent softness to persistent challenges in Tesla's automotive segment. The company reported its first annual revenue drop in years for 2025, driven by softening EV demand, intensified competition from rivals like BYD, and economic factors including reduced incentives in key markets like Europe. Early 2026 data suggests continued pressure, with market predictions pointing to Q1 deliveries potentially below 350,000 vehicles—down significantly from prior quarters and reflecting impacts from Model Y refreshes and factory retooling.

Despite these headwinds, optimism centers on Tesla's aggressive pivot toward non-auto ventures. Energy storage deployments have shown robust growth, with recent quarters posting triple-digit year-over-year increases and margins beginning to rival or exceed those of the automotive division. The segment's expansion has helped offset some automotive weakness and reinforced Tesla's positioning as an energy and AI company rather than purely an EV manufacturer.

The most immediate catalyst looms on March 9, when Tesla must submit comprehensive data—including video footage, event data recorder logs, and CAN bus files—on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system to the NHTSA. The filing stems from an ongoing investigation into potential safety issues, including reports of FSD-equipped vehicles violating traffic laws such as running red lights or entering opposing lanes. The probe gained urgency following Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi launch in Austin in mid-2025, where the fleet—now expanded but still relatively small compared to competitors like Waymo—has recorded multiple incidents, including crashes into fixed objects.

Tesla has publicly maintained that its FSD safety data shows superiority over human drivers in certain metrics, with major crashes occurring far less frequently per mile driven under supervision. However, the company has faced criticism for redacting crash details under confidentiality provisions, unlike peers that provide more transparent reporting. A favorable NHTSA response could accelerate approvals for broader robotaxi operations and unsupervised FSD deployment across North America, potentially unlocking significant software revenue streams. An adverse outcome, analysts warn, might delay rollouts, trigger recalls, or dampen the autonomy premium baked into TSLA's valuation.

Adding to the narrative shift, Tesla continues retooling operations for future technologies. The Fremont factory has halted Model S and Model X production to repurpose lines for commercial-scale manufacturing of the Optimus humanoid robot. CEO Elon Musk has described Optimus as potentially representing the majority of the company's long-term value, with Gen 3 advancements expected to demonstrate progress in physical AI capabilities. Cybercab—the purpose-built, steering-wheel-free robotaxi—remains on track for volume production starting in April 2026, though regulatory hurdles for driverless vehicles without traditional controls persist in most U.S. states.

Recent operational tweaks include a base fee increase for Austin robotaxi rides from $1 to $3.25, the first hike in months, signaling efforts to improve unit economics amid scaling challenges. The fleet has grown incrementally, but remains modest compared to established players, raising questions about execution speed versus ambitious timelines.

Wall Street views remain divided. Bullish analysts, including those at Bank of America, highlight Tesla's leadership in autonomy, robotics, and energy as justification for premium multiples, with some price targets stretching toward $600 or higher over the next year. Bears point to execution risks, regulatory uncertainty, high capital expenditures (projected in the tens of billions for 2026), and softening core demand as reasons for caution.

Options activity has shown bearish bets in recent sessions, with traders positioning against near-term upside ahead of the NHTSA deadline. Broader market sentiment also weighs on TSLA, as macroeconomic factors and EV sector competition continue to influence trading.

As March unfolds, Tesla's trajectory hinges on navigating the regulatory crossroads while demonstrating tangible progress in its AI and robotics ambitions. Success could reignite momentum and validate the pivot away from pure EV reliance; setbacks might prolong the current consolidation phase. Investors continue to monitor delivery trends, energy metrics, and any NHTSA updates closely, as these elements will shape the stock's path through 2026.

With its blend of legacy automotive challenges and high-stakes bets on future technologies, Tesla remains one of the market's most polarizing and closely watched names. The coming days could prove decisive in determining whether the autonomy story sustains its hold on investor imagination or faces renewed skepticism.