Microsoft Corp. shares surged nearly 3% in heavy trading Wednesday, snapping a recent pullback as investors found reassurance from comments easing fears over AI disruption and new strategic collaborations bolstered confidence in the tech giant's cloud and artificial intelligence momentum.

Microsoft has made huge investments in AI infrastructure
AFP

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed at $400.60 on Feb. 25, up $11.60 or 2.98%, on volume of more than 43 million shares — well above the average. The stock traded in a day's range of $390.20 to $401.47 before settling near session highs. Pre-market activity Thursday showed minor dips around $399 to $400. The shares have ranged from a 52-week low of $344.79 to a high of $555.45, reflecting volatility amid broader tech sector rotation and debates over AI spending sustainability. Market capitalization stands near $2.97 trillion.

The rally followed a period of pressure, with the stock down about 20% year to date through mid-February and approaching its 200-week moving average in what some analysts called a rare technical crossroads not seen in over a decade. Recent gains appear tied to reduced anxiety over generative AI potentially eroding enterprise software incumbents, including Microsoft's own offerings.

Anthropic's remarks suggesting its Claude AI ecosystem could complement rather than supplant existing tools helped calm nerves, while a White House initiative on "rate payer protection" for AI data center energy costs signaled potential regulatory support rather than headwinds. Microsoft also announced an expanded partnership with SpaceX's Starlink to extend Azure's edge computing reach, enhancing connectivity in remote areas and supporting hybrid cloud deployments.

The positive sentiment builds on Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter results reported Jan. 28 for the period ended Dec. 31, 2025. Revenue reached $81.3 billion, up 17% year over year (15% in constant currency), beating consensus estimates around $80.3 billion. Operating income rose 21% to $38.3 billion, while GAAP net income surged 60% to $38.5 billion, or $5.16 per diluted share. Non-GAAP EPS was $4.14, up 24% and above expectations of about $3.86.

Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion for the first time, climbing 26% (24% constant currency), driven by strong demand across the portfolio. Intelligent Cloud segment revenue hit $32.9 billion, up 29% (28% constant currency), with Azure and other cloud services growing 39% (38% constant currency). AI contributions were significant, accounting for 22 to 26 percentage points of Azure's growth, executives noted on the earnings call.

Productivity and Business Processes revenue increased, fueled by Microsoft 365 commercial cloud subscriptions. More Personal Computing saw a decline due to softer gaming, partially offset by search advertising and Windows OEM strength.

CFO Amy Hood highlighted robust commercial bookings and capital expenditures of $37.5 billion in the quarter — much of it on AI infrastructure like GPUs and CPUs — positioning the company for future monetization. Total first-half fiscal 2026 capex reached $72.4 billion, on track for around $100 billion annually, raising some investor concerns about near-term margin pressure but underscoring commitment to AI leadership.

Guidance for the fiscal third quarter called for revenue of $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, aligning with expectations, with Azure growth projected at 37% to 38% constant currency. Gross margins narrowed slightly to just over 68%, the lowest in three years, amid heavy infrastructure investments.

CEO Satya Nadella emphasized that Microsoft is "only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion," with the company's AI business already rivaling some of its largest franchises in scale. Partnerships with OpenAI, Anthropic and others continue to drive ecosystem expansion.

Recent developments include progress on internal silicon like the Maia 200 AI chip, which Goldman Sachs analysts praised as advancing Microsoft's strategy, reiterating a buy rating with a $600 price target. Broader Wall Street sentiment remains bullish, with consensus ratings of "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" from dozens of analysts. Average price targets hover around $592 to $603, implying 47% to 50% upside from current levels, though some range as high as $730 and as low as $392 amid valuation debates.

Challenges include regulatory scrutiny, such as a raid on Microsoft Japan's offices over potential Azure restrictions on rival cloud services, and ongoing antitrust dynamics. Gaming leadership changes, including new appointments with AI expertise, signal tighter integration with Azure and Copilot.

Despite a year-to-date decline earlier in 2026, Microsoft's fundamentals — dominant cloud position, recurring revenue streams and AI tailwinds — support optimism for recovery. Investors watch upcoming product roadmaps, capex efficiency and enterprise AI adoption for further catalysts.

As AI transforms industries, Microsoft's integrated platform across cloud, productivity and emerging agentic capabilities positions it as a frontrunner, with recent share gains reflecting renewed conviction in its long-term trajectory.