CANBERRA, Australia — Lung cancer is projected to remain Australia's deadliest cancer in 2026, claiming an estimated 9,000 lives as part of more than 54,000 total cancer deaths expected nationwide, according to the latest data from Cancer Australia and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

Smoking is the leading cause of lung cancer
Smoking is the leading cause of lung cancer

While age-standardised mortality rates continue a long-term decline thanks to better prevention, screening and treatments, the absolute number of deaths is rising because of population growth and ageing, officials said. The 2025 estimates — the most recent detailed projections available — show 53,545 cancer deaths, a figure expected to edge higher into 2026.

Cancer Australia's October 2025 statistics and AIHW's Cancer Data in Australia report rank the top 10 cancers by expected deaths. Here they are, based on 2025 figures that officials say will closely track into 2026:

  1. Lung cancer: 8,994 deaths
  2. Colorectal (bowel) cancer: 5,235 deaths
  3. Pancreatic cancer: 4,039 deaths
  4. Prostate cancer: 3,975 deaths
  5. Breast cancer: 3,353 deaths
  6. Liver cancer: 2,091 deaths
  7. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
  8. Cancer of unknown primary site
  9. Brain cancer
  10. Melanoma of the skin

These 10 account for the vast majority of cancer fatalities. Upper gastrointestinal cancers as a group — including pancreatic, liver, oesophageal, stomach and biliary — narrowly edged lung cancer in raw 2024 ABS provisional data (9,301 vs. 9,119 deaths), but official 2025 projections and early 2026 indicators keep lung cancer at No. 1.

Lung cancer has held the grim top spot for decades, though smoking rates have fallen sharply. It kills more Australians than any other cancer because many cases are diagnosed late, when survival is poor. In 2025, it represented about 17 per cent of all cancer deaths. Targeted therapies and immunotherapy have lifted five-year survival for some subtypes, but tobacco remains the leading preventable cause. Health authorities urge continued anti-smoking campaigns and low-dose CT screening for high-risk groups.

Colorectal cancer ranks second, with more than 5,200 projected deaths. National bowel screening has improved early detection, yet participation lags. Experts credit the program with driving down mortality rates, but rising cases in people under 50 are worrying oncologists. "We're seeing concerning increases in early-onset colorectal cancer," one AIHW analysis noted in 2025 data releases.

Pancreatic cancer claims nearly 4,040 lives annually and is notorious for its dismal prognosis — five-year survival below 10 per cent. Late symptoms and lack of routine screening keep it lethal. It forms a major part of the upper GI surge that some analysts flagged in 2024 ABS figures. Research into earlier biomarkers is underway but not yet standard.

Prostate cancer kills about 3,975 men each year, though mortality rates have dropped dramatically from 63 deaths per 100,000 males in the mid-1990s to 33 in 2025. PSA testing and improved treatments get much of the credit, but over-diagnosis remains a debate.

Breast cancer claims 3,353 lives, mostly women. Five-year survival now exceeds 90 per cent for many, up from earlier decades, thanks to mammographic screening and targeted drugs like trastuzumab. Still, it remains a leading cause among women and underscores the need for continued awareness.

Liver cancer (2,091 deaths) has risen with hepatitis infections, alcohol use and obesity-related fatty liver disease. Vaccination against hepatitis B and treatment for hepatitis C have slowed growth, but rates remain elevated in some migrant communities.

Lower on the list but still significant are Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cancer of unknown primary (where the original site cannot be found), brain cancer and melanoma. Melanoma, once a major killer, has seen mortality fall with public sun-safety campaigns and immunotherapy breakthroughs that have transformed advanced cases.

Overall, cancer accounts for roughly three in every 10 deaths in Australia. Yet the story is not all grim. The age-standardised mortality rate has fallen from 257 deaths per 100,000 people in 2000 to an estimated 194 in 2025 — a 24 per cent drop. For people in their 30s and 40s, rates have declined even more sharply.

Survival gains are real. Five-year relative survival for all cancers combined has improved steadily. Prostate cancer survival jumped from around 60 per cent in earlier decades to 96 per cent. Breast cancer rates have followed a similar path. Even lung cancer outcomes are inching upward for never-smokers and those with actionable mutations.

But challenges persist. Absolute death numbers are climbing because Australians are living longer, and the over-65 population — where cancer risk is highest — is growing fastest. Disparities remain: regional and remote areas, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, and lower socioeconomic groups face higher mortality.

Prevention offers the biggest lever. Tobacco control, HPV vaccination, hepatitis immunisation, sun protection, healthy weight, limited alcohol and participation in screening programs (bowel, breast, cervical) could avert thousands of deaths. Emerging research on early-onset cancers in younger adults is prompting calls for updated guidelines.

Cancer Australia CEO Dorothy Keefe has highlighted the dual trends: "Outcomes are improving overall, but the sheer number of cases and deaths demands sustained investment in research, equitable access to care and public education."

As 2026 unfolds, health officials will release more granular 2025 actuals and 2026 projections. For now, the message is clear: while the 10 listed cancers will dominate mortality statistics, many deaths are preventable or treatable if caught early.

Australians are encouraged to talk to their GPs about screening eligibility, adopt healthier lifestyles and stay alert to symptoms. With continued progress in science and public health, the downward trend in rates could accelerate — even as the population ages.