PERTH, Australia — Tropical Cyclone Narelle, after carving a rare path across northern Australia and dumping heavy rain from Queensland to the Northern Territory and Kimberley, is forecast to re-intensify off Western Australia's northwest coast and potentially deliver significant rainfall and damaging winds to Perth and the state's southwest over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Set to Bring Heavy Rainfall to Perth
Tropical Cyclone Narelle Set to Bring Heavy Rainfall to Perth This Weekend as Ex-Cyclone Re-Intensifies

The Bureau of Meteorology warned Tuesday that ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle, now moving into the Indian Ocean, could rapidly strengthen back into a tropical cyclone later this week before curving southward along or near the west coast. Perth residents should prepare for widespread falls of 20 to 50 millimeters on Saturday, with an additional 20 to 30 millimeters possible on Sunday, though totals could climb higher depending on the system's exact track.

Senior Bureau meteorologist Jonathan How said the system is tracking in an unusual manner, having already affected multiple regions. "Later this week, the tropical cyclone is then forecast to curve back towards the Western Australian coast, and could impact places as far south as Perth as we head in towards the weekend," How said. He noted a range of scenarios, including the cyclone hugging the northwest coast or remaining farther offshore before crossing closer to the southwest.

Narelle first made landfall in Far North Queensland before crossing into the Northern Territory, where it brought more than 100 millimeters of rain to wide areas and triggered flood warnings. It then moved into Western Australia's Kimberley region as a tropical low on March 23, delivering heavy falls and damaging winds before heading offshore Tuesday.

The system is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, possibly reaching Category 3 or 4 intensity with wind gusts up to 150-200 km/h or higher in its core. Even if it stays offshore, it will generate large swells, dangerous surf conditions and coastal erosion risks along much of the west coast from the Pilbara southward.

A coastal crossing near Perth would be uncommon. Historical records show only about 15 tropical cyclones have caused some impact on the Perth region in the past 100 years. Notable past events include Tropical Cyclone Alby in 1978 and Cyclone Ned in 1989, which brought strong winds and heavy rain to the southwest.

For Perth, the main threat appears to be heavy rainfall rather than destructive winds, though gusts could reach damaging levels if the center tracks closer to the coast. The Wheatbelt and Great Southern regions could see even higher totals, potentially exceeding 50-80 millimeters in some areas, which would benefit agricultural districts after drier conditions but also raise flood risks in saturated catchments.

The Bureau has issued severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall and damaging winds across parts of northern Western Australia, with watches extending farther south. Residents from the Gascoyne and Mid West down to the Perth metropolitan area and southwest are urged to monitor updates closely, as forecasts can shift with the system's unpredictable path.

Emergency services and local councils are preparing for possible impacts. The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advised clearing gutters, securing loose outdoor items and having emergency kits ready. Coastal communities face heightened risks from large waves and erosion, while inland areas could experience flash flooding from intense downpours.

Perth's weather is expected to turn unsettled from Friday, with showers increasing and winds strengthening. Saturday is forecast to be cooler and breezy with periods of heavy rain, while Sunday could bring more showers and gusty conditions before the system moves away early next week.

The rainfall, while potentially disruptive, may provide welcome relief to parts of the Wheatbelt facing drier autumn conditions. However, rapid heavy falls on already moist soils could lead to localized flooding, road closures and hazards for drivers.

This event marks a rare continental crossing for a tropical system, affecting Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia in succession. It is the first time since 2005 that a cyclone has impacted all three tropical jurisdictions in one event, according to the Bureau.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Narelle was weakening as it moved offshore but is expected to draw energy from warm Indian Ocean waters and reorganize. Computer models show uncertainty in the exact landfall point, with possibilities ranging from a crossing near Geraldton or Kalbarri to a more southerly track affecting the Perth metro area or even farther south toward Bunbury.

The Bureau emphasized that while a direct hit on Perth remains possible, the more likely outcome involves significant rain and wind impacts across the southern half of the state without the cyclone's core passing directly overhead. Still, officials are treating the situation seriously given the potential for damaging conditions in populated areas.

Perth residents are advised to stay informed through the Bureau of Meteorology website and app, as well as local radio and emergency alerts. Schools and businesses may adjust operations if conditions deteriorate, and outdoor events planned for the weekend could face disruptions.

Farmers in the Wheatbelt and Great Southern have been monitoring forecasts closely, with some welcoming the rain for crops while others worry about waterlogging or harvest delays. Coastal boaters and fishers have been warned of dangerous conditions with large swells building through the week.

The broader context of a changing climate has seen increased variability in tropical cyclone behavior, with systems occasionally tracking farther south than historical norms. Scientists continue to study how warming oceans may influence such events.

For now, the focus remains on preparation. Authorities recommend securing properties, stocking up on essentials and having a family emergency plan in place. Those in low-lying areas or near rivers and drains should be particularly vigilant for flooding.

As Narelle continues its journey, the coming days will bring greater clarity on its intensity and precise path. Perth and southwest Western Australia face an uncommon late-season drenching that could bring both benefits and hazards.

The Bureau will provide regular updates throughout the week. Residents are encouraged to check forecasts daily and heed any warnings issued by emergency services.

With the weekend approaching, Tropical Cyclone Narelle serves as a reminder of Australia's vulnerability to tropical weather systems even in its southern reaches. Preparation and vigilance will be key as the ex-cyclone potentially delivers heavy rainfall and strong winds to the Perth region.