NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares traded mixed to slightly lower in early trading on February 25, 2026, closing the prior session at $191.55 on February 23, up 0.91% that day but down modestly year-to-date amid broader tech sector caution. The AI chip leader's stock has risen about 2.7% in 2026 so far, outperforming the Nasdaq's 2.5% decline, as investors position for the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report due after market close Wednesday, February 25.

Tech giants in the AI race have been spending billions of dollars for GPUs made by Nvidia, considered a leader when it comes to chips that power the technology
NVIDIA AFP

NVIDIA's market capitalization hovers near $4.7 trillion, making it one of the world's most valuable companies. The stock has shown resilience despite volatility, trading in a 52-week range from $86.62 to $212.19. Recent sessions saw NVDA fluctuate between roughly $187 and $194, with average daily volume exceeding 170 million shares during spikes.

The upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated as a litmus test for the AI infrastructure boom. Wall Street expects fiscal Q4 (ended January 2026) revenue of approximately $65.6 billion to $66 billion, up roughly 66-68% year-over-year, driven by explosive demand for Blackwell GPUs and data center accelerators. Adjusted earnings per share are forecasted at $1.50 to $1.53, compared to $0.89 in the prior-year quarter. Guidance for the April quarter is projected around $71.7 billion to $72.5 billion, implying continued triple-digit growth.

Analysts at Wedbush Securities and others highlight hyperscaler capex exceeding prior expectations, with servers and AI infrastructure forming the bulk of forward spend. NVIDIA's data center segment, which accounted for the majority of revenue in recent quarters, remains the primary growth engine. CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized a multi-year AI factory buildout, estimating $3 trillion to $4 trillion in global investment through 2030, with NVIDIA positioned to capture significant share.

The company shipped millions of Blackwell GPUs in the past year, with Rubin architecture on track for late 2026 launch and subsequent variants (Rubin CPX, Rubin Ultra, Feynman) extending the roadmap into 2028. Sovereign AI, enterprise AI, AI-native startups, physical AI, and quantum computing represent additional long-term opportunities beyond traditional data centers.

Despite the optimism, skepticism has grown over the sustainability of massive AI spending. Wall Street has turned cautious on hyperscaler capex levels, with concerns that returns on investment may lag or that competition from AMD (following its Meta deal) and custom silicon from hyperscalers could pressure margins. Some investors, including Michael Burry, have questioned the scale of depreciation and free cash flow impacts from capex doubling or more in 2026.

NVIDIA's stock has bucked broader tech weakness in 2026, supported by strong fundamentals. The forward P/E remains elevated but is viewed as justified by growth prospects. Institutional ownership stays robust, with funds like Vanguard and BlackRock maintaining large positions.

The earnings call at 5 p.m. ET on February 25 will feature commentary from Huang and CFO Colette Kress on Blackwell ramp, Rubin progress, and AI demand trends. A strong beat or optimistic guidance could spark a rally, while any signs of slowing growth or margin pressure might trigger volatility.

As NVIDIA approaches its fiscal Q4 results, the market awaits confirmation that the AI supercycle remains intact. With competition intensifying and capex scrutiny rising, the report will shape sentiment for the AI chip leader and broader tech sector in the months ahead.