Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is trading below USD 0.9100 this morning as it maintains its base around its fresh three-month low amidst declining commodity prices and a rallying US Dollar.

Australia: US financial markets were closed overnight for the Thanksgiving holiday (and will be open for half the session tonight). European equities continued their steady grind higher, closing at a 2-year record high.

The EUR rose against most of its major peers after slightly stronger-than-expected November German CPI inflation led markets to scale back expectations the ECB will cut its policy rates further. Meanwhile, the Bank of England announced it will end the Funding for Lending
Scheme incentives for mortgage lending in order to dampen UK house prices growth which gave some support to the GBP overnight.

In Asia geopolitical news is getting more coverage in the wake of China's recently declared air defence zone with Japan and South Korea both flying planes in that zone without Chinese requested plans being lodged.

Even so, Chinese rhetoric has softened somewhat but still any developments worth monitoring. It hasn't been material enough to unsettle Asian investor confidence if yesterday's gains are any guide.

After yesterday's mini-step back up after the stronger than expected Capex data back into the 0.9100's, the AUD has returned to its 3-month low and remained in a limited range with RBA credit data today. We expect both business and household credit to be moderately higher in the month, supported by lower interest rates and improved business and consumer confidence.

Majors: In currency markets, it was a quiet night due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. It is 37 years to the day that The Band gave their final live performance. The trend of a strengthening USD against commodity currencies continued but moves were minor.

As written above, the EUR was the exception and was mildly stronger after German inflation data printed slightly better than expectations. Speaking at a press conference on release of the BoE's Financial Stability report, Governor Carney said that the allowances for the BoE's Funding for Lending Scheme would only apply to business lending and not mortgage lending from 2014, another sign of an improving economy. GBP made some further net gains overnight as it did against the AUD.

Today, a host of Japanese data will be the focus with the official Chinese PMI Manufacturing index scheduled for release over the weekend.
Economic Calendar
29 NOV AU Private Sector Credit
UK Net Consumer Credit
EC Unemployment Rate
JN Jobless Rate