10 Reasons Republicans Lost Midterms: Inflation, Iran War and Trump-Picked Candidates Fueled Democratic Sweep

WASHINGTON — Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, and voter surveys, analysts and party leaders are offering a range of explanations for how a party that held unified power in Washington ended the night in the minority.

Some factors were national, such as rising prices and President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Others were specific to individual races and candidates. Republicans themselves have pointed to the historical tendency of a president's party to lose ground in midterm years.

Here are 10 factors identified by exit polls, analysts and political figures in both parties.

1. The cost of living

Rising prices dominated voters' concerns. CBS News reported that 89% of voters said cost of living was a major or crucial factor in their votes. The issue carried particular weight because Trump won the 2024 election promising to bring down high inflation.

The AP Voter Poll found the pattern held even in Republican strongholds. Nationally, voters who said they were very concerned about everyday costs such as groceries, healthcare and gas overwhelmingly reported backing the Democratic candidate in their House race.

2. Trump's sagging approval

The president's standing weighed on his party's candidates. CBS News put Trump's approval rating at 38%, historically low for a president in a midterm year. An exit poll cited by NBC found nearly half of midterm voters said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to Trump.

Warning signs had appeared well before Election Day. A Brookings Institution analysis last December found that groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024, especially Hispanics, independents and young adults, were expressing disappointment with his performance.

3. Tariffs and the war in Iran

Voters connected higher prices to specific policies. According to the AP Voter Poll, voters nationwide blamed Trump for his tariffs, his war in Iran and his unfulfilled promise to bring down prices, and about two-thirds said his policies had made the economy worse.

Trump has rejected that criticism. He insisted he had no regrets about the Iran war, the issue many Republicans blame most for the party's struggles, according to CNN.

4. Gas prices

Fuel costs were a specific pain point, and Trump himself acknowledged them. In a Fox News interview Tuesday night, he attributed Republican losses to the candidates and high gas prices.

5. Candidate selection

Several high-profile Republican nominees were chosen with Trump's direct backing, and many lost. Losing candidates including Darline Graham in South Carolina, Ken Paxton in Texas, Michael Whatley in North Carolina and Mike Collins in Georgia were hand-selected by Trump, in some cases over the objections of other Republicans.

Voters raised doubts about specific nominees. In South Carolina, nearly two-thirds of voters said Graham lacked the right experience, and in Texas and Kansas, most doubted that Paxton and Sen. Roger Marshall had the right character to serve, according to CNN's exit poll.

6. Loyalty as a litmus test

Close alignment with the president became a liability in some states. In North Carolina, about 6 in 10 voters said Whatley was too supportive of Trump, and they chose former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper instead.

7. Independents and crossover voters

Democrats won voters outside their base. CNN's exit poll found self-identified Republicans were more likely than Democrats to cross party lines, and independents favored Democrats by a double-digit margin.

8. Erosion of the 2024 coalition

Gains Republicans made two years ago slipped in several groups. Exit polls showed Republicans losing ground among Black men, Latino voters and younger Americans.

The shift extended to white voters as well. White college-educated voters favored Democrats by a wider margin than in either of the past two midterms, while Republicans saw some erosion of their 2022 advantage among white voters without a college degree.

9. Immigration and corruption concerns

The administration's approach to immigration drew criticism from some voters. Trump's hardline immigration policies became a source of dissatisfaction among voters, according to an analysis by Outlook India.

Government ethics also loomed large. More than half of voters nationally told the AP Voter Poll that government corruption was crucial to their vote for Congress, a slightly higher share than said the same about the cost of living. About 7 in 10 voters, including about 4 in 10 Republicans, said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency.

10. Midterm history and turnout

Republican leaders have emphasized that the president's party almost always struggles in midterms. House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged his party's loss of the majority but said the historical pattern is "very, very difficult to overcome" in remarks to supporters in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Trump has also pointed to turnout and his absence from the ballot. "They just didn't inspire the people to get out and vote," he told Fox News, adding that his supporters would have turned out had he been a candidate. He separately described the climate as "There was a mood in the air, I guess."

Other perspectives

Not every reading of the results points to a clear mandate for Democrats. The AP Voter Poll found only about half of voters had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared with about 4 in 10 for the GOP, and about 2 in 10 Democratic voters viewed the party negatively. On issues including the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes and immigration, roughly 2 in 10 voters said neither party was better equipped.

Republicans have also noted that midterm losses for the party in power are the norm rather than the exception. Trump noted that a sitting president's party almost always loses ground in a midterm. Some in the party argue the results reflect candidate-specific weaknesses and economic conditions rather than a rejection of the party's agenda.

The president has said he will respect the outcome. Trump told The New York Times he is "absolutely willing to accept" the results.

Final vote counts remain unofficial in several states, and analysts are expected to refine their understanding of the results as more data on turnout and voter behavior becomes available.