Carta's latest research on Australian startup sentiment reveals IPO ambition hasn't disappeared, but exit timelines are stretching

[Australia] – Australian startup founders remain firmly committed to IPO ambitions but are playing a longer, tougher game according to new research by private markets software platform Carta.

Sydney, Australia
Arvin Wiyono / Unsplash

Based on a Carta and Censuswide survey of 500 senior decision-makers at startups across Australia, The Australian Startup Outlook 2026: How startups are recalibrating capital, exits and growth reveals that while IPOs are still seen as realistic by the vast majority of founders, timelines are stretching well beyond five years as capital pressure intensifies, burn rates rise, and companies prioritise readiness over speed.

With most startups operating on less than 12 months of runway, founders are shifting into preservation mode, expanding global exit options, reassessing where they operate, and turning to AI as a cost and efficiency lever.

KEY FINDINGS

  • ● IPO ambition remains strong, but exit timelines are stretching

○ 96%of Australian startups still see an IPO as part of their growth or exit strategy, indicating IPO ambition remains near-universal

○ 90% believe an IPO remains a realistic option in the current environment, despite recent market volatility

○ 47% now view an IPO as a long-term outcome (five years or more), compared with just 10% targeting the next two years, suggesting founders are prioritising readiness over speed

○ Victorian startups are more likely to take a long-term view (63%) than those in NSW (49%), pointing to geographic differences in IPO timing

  • ● Capital pressure is acute, particularly in Victoria

○ 65%of startups report having less than 12 months of runway, placing most companies within a year of needing a capital event or major cost adjustment

○ 9% have fewer than six months of runway remaining, highlighting pockets of immediate funding pressure

○ Runway pressure is more pronounced in Victoria (71%) than in NSW, reflecting higher cost bases and faster burn

○ 86% report increased burn over the past year, with 29% describing the increase as significant

○ In response, startups are focusing on preservation rather than acceleration: 42% have raised prices, 37% have delayed expansion, 33% have raised bridge funding and 33% have reduced headcount

  • ● Global exit optionality is expanding alongside the ASX

○ 46%of IPO-planning startups expect to list on the ASX, reinforcing its role as the default domestic market

○ More than half (54%) are also considering dual or offshore listings, reflecting a desire for broader capital access

○ Dual listings are the most popular international strategy (32%), followed by offshore listings (22%), with the Nasdaq as the most common target

  • ● Australia's startup map is widening, but major hubs still matter

○ 99%of startups report some shift in talent or investor interest beyond Sydney and Melbourne, signalling broad-based decentralisation

○ Nearly half (49%) describe the shift as significant, suggesting emerging hubs are gaining real momentum

○ Sydney and Melbourne remain the most cited future hubs (40% each), indicating their continued dominance

○ But Brisbane follows closely (31%), rising to 48% among larger startups, reflecting its growing appeal as companies scale. Even Darwin draws 21% of responses, suggesting emerging optimism about newer markets.

○ 86% still say operating in Sydney or Melbourne is important for attracting capital, talent and customers

  • ● AI adoption is driven as much by pressure as belief

○ 80%agree there is an AI bubble and feel pressured to integrate AI into their operations.

○ 63% believe the current AI pressure will fade within the next 12 months, suggesting many view the trend as cyclical

○ Despite this, 74% expect AI to reduce headcount over the next two years, indicating real operational impact

○ More than 40% say AI has already changed how they position their business when raising capital

QUOTE

"Founders haven't stepped back from ambition, but they are being far more deliberate about how and when they pursue it. Longer IPO timelines, tighter runway and a greater focus on optionality reflect a more mature approach to building companies in a constrained capital environment."

"For investors, this shift places greater weight on flexibility, governance and alignment. As startups plan for multiple potential outcomes rather than a single path to liquidity, the ability to support durable growth over longer horizons becomes just as important as access to capital itself." - Bhavik Vashi, Managing Director of Asia Pacific, Middle East, & Africa, Carta

ABOUT THE RESEARCH

The report is based on a survey of 500 senior decision-makers at Australian startups, conducted in December 2025. Respondents worked at startups with up to 500 employees that were less than five years old, and had under A$100 million in annual turnover, across a broad range of industries and locations.

Survey findings were analysed alongside relevant Carta datasets to provide additional context on capital markets, equity usage and investor behaviour.