Nasdaq Ticks Higher as Wall Street Awaits Retail Earnings and Weighs Fed's Next Move at Jackson Hole Meeting

NEW YORK — The Nasdaq Composite edged higher Monday morning, climbing 25.30 points, or 0.095%, to 26,754.47 as of 9:36 a.m. EDT, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's next policy move ahead of this week's Jackson Hole symposium and braced for a slate of major retail earnings reports expected to offer fresh insight into the health of the American consumer.

The modest gain came after U.S. stock futures wavered heading into Monday's open. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1% following the benchmark index's third consecutive weekly advance. Nasdaq-100 futures had risen 0.5% ahead of the opening bell, reflecting a relatively calm week on Wall Street heading into a stretch that market participants expect to bring renewed volatility.

Big-box retailers including Walmart, Target, Lowe's and Home Depot are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, providing investors with a closely watched read on consumer spending patterns during the critical back-to-school shopping season. The reports come at a moment when broader consumer sentiment data has shown signs of deterioration, adding weight to how markets are likely to interpret the retail sector's performance.

Traders have recently pulled back the odds of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve following its Jackson Hole meeting to less than one-third, according to market pricing, as a mix of inflation and jobs data has painted an increasingly mixed economic picture. Oil prices have remained a key variable for both markets and the central bank, with Brent crude closing in on $90 a barrel as fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah dealt a fresh setback to efforts aimed at ending overlapping conflicts in the Middle East.

Monday's modest advance followed a softer finish to last week. On Friday, the S&P 500 eased 0.2% from its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 108 points, or 0.20%, to close at 53,732 points, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%. Declines on the Dow were led by Salesforce, down 2.25%, Cisco Systems, down 1.67%, and Amgen, down 1.28%. Those losses were partially offset by gains in Walt Disney, up 2.05%, Chevron, up 1.16%, and UnitedHealth, up 0.61%.

Friday's pullback came alongside weaker-than-expected economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment index fell to 51.0, down from 55.2 in July and well below the 55 economists had forecast, marking a roughly 8% monthly decline that ended two consecutive months of improving sentiment. Survey director Joanne Hsu attributed much of the decline to worsening expectations for future business conditions. "Consumer sentiment fell about 8% this August, ending two consecutive months of improvement. While views of personal finances saw only minor declines, expected business conditions sank 11% for the short run and 17% for the long run," Hsu said. She added that the decline was broad-based across political affiliations, noting that "decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest month-to-month decline in August."

Inflation expectations also ticked higher in the same survey, with one-year expectations rising to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, a figure that remains well above the 3.4% level that prevailed before the recent conflict involving Iran began affecting global energy markets.

Retail sales data released last week added to the mixed economic picture. July retail sales declined 0.6%, a significant miss relative to the 0.1% increase economists polled by Dow Jones had expected, following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding automobile sales, retail sales fell 0.3% in July, compared with expectations for a 0.2% gain. Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, described the miss as notable. "The retail sales report came in much softer than expected," Martin said, though he noted the weakness partly reflected lower gasoline prices and declining auto sales rather than a broader pullback in consumer spending.

Despite the softer data, individual stock stories have continued to draw investor attention within the technology and semiconductor space. Storage and semiconductor makers including Sandisk and Micron Technology rallied in premarket trading Monday. Sandisk in particular has been a standout performer in 2026, having risen roughly sixfold this year on the back of surging memory demand tied to the broader artificial intelligence buildout. JPMorgan recently upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral, setting a $2,250 price target that implies significant additional upside from recent trading levels, citing the company's positioning within a tightening global memory supply chain.

With no major economic data releases scheduled for Monday itself, according to a market preview from Charles Schwab, investor attention is expected to shift more heavily toward Tuesday's slate, which includes July housing starts and building permits data, July industrial production figures, and earnings reports from Home Depot, Baidu and Toll Brothers.

The overall market backdrop entering this week reflects a delicate balancing act for investors: continued strength in artificial intelligence-linked technology and semiconductor stocks against a softening consumer picture, elevated oil prices tied to escalating Middle East tensions, and diminishing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. How that combination resolves is likely to depend heavily on the coming week's retail earnings reports and any signals Federal Reserve officials offer regarding the path of monetary policy during the Jackson Hole symposium, an annual gathering of central bankers and economists that has historically served as a venue for significant policy signaling.

As of Monday morning's modest gain, the Nasdaq remained close to the record territory it has approached in recent sessions, even as broader market indicators suggest investors remain cautious heading into a week likely to bring more clarity on both the health of American consumers and the Federal Reserve's next policy steps.