Kalshi Traders Give Jensen Huang 33% Chance of Leaving Nvidia CEO Role by Mid-2027 After Affair Admission

Traders on prediction market Kalshi are betting there is a meaningful chance that Jensen Huang will no longer lead Nvidia within the next year, after the chipmaker's co-founder admitted to an extramarital affair and the company's board opened an investigation.

Kalshi's market asking "When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO?" priced the chance of his departure before July 1, 2027, at 33%, before Jan. 1, 2028, at 43% and before Jan. 1, 2029, at 58%, according to the platform's market page on Monday.

The near-term odds are lower. The contract for a departure before Jan. 1, 2027, was trading at about 17 to 18 cents, implying an 18% chance, with about $240,359 in trading volume.

Prediction market prices reflect the bets of traders willing to put money on an outcome. They are not forecasts from analysts or the company and can swing sharply with news and thin trading.

Why traders are betting

The market's activity comes after a dramatic week for Nvidia. Huang disclosed the affair in a message to staff. "I was unfaithful to my wife," he wrote in a memo the company posted publicly.

The admission is tied to a broader controversy. Nvidia's board has opened an independent investigation into whether Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation, following reports that a Chinese intelligence agency recruited a businesswoman who had a personal relationship with him.

Huang insisted that the relationship did not involve the sharing of sensitive company information.

Huang says he is staying

Despite the betting, Huang has signaled he intends to remain in charge. He said he would remain as chief executive while the investigation proceeds. "My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust," he told staff.

The board has backed him for now. The board said it has "no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised," but that its inquiry will examine all available information. The board is not seeking Huang's removal as CEO.

The investigation will be independent. It is being supervised by a committee of independent directors and supported by external legal counsel.

Succession uncertainty

Part of what traders are pricing in is how much the company depends on its founder. The development has left questions about the company's leadership at a firm with no named succession plan.

Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and has led it ever since, guiding its transformation from a graphics chip maker into the dominant supplier of artificial intelligence processors and the world's most valuable chipmaker.

Stock reaction

Investors reacted on Monday, the first full trading session after the news. Nvidia was the only member of the Magnificent 7 group of major tech stocks losing ground Monday morning. Nvidia shares were down 5.47% in late-morning trading, even as the Nasdaq rose 2.4%.

What's next

Several upcoming events could move both the stock and the prediction market odds. Lawmakers have invited Huang to a closed-door congressional briefing, and Nvidia is scheduled to report quarterly results on Nov. 17, when analysts are expected to press executives on leadership and governance.

The board's investigation findings, whenever they are released, are likely to be the biggest factor. A clean outcome could push the odds of a departure lower, while new revelations could push them higher.

About prediction markets

Kalshi is a prediction market where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. It says it is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and warns that trading involves risk and that members can lose the cost of entering any transaction, including fees.

The company faces legal challenges in several states that argue some of its contracts amount to illegal gambling, a question that courts have not yet settled.

Markets on executive departures are relatively thinly traded compared with major financial markets, so a handful of large bets can move the odds significantly. Prices can also reflect speculation rather than inside information.

Nvidia has not publicly commented on any timeline for Huang's tenure beyond his statement that he will stay on as CEO during the investigation.