Can the Dodgers Three-Peat? Betting Odds Give Los Angeles About a 44% Chance as NLCS Looms Against Brewers

LOS ANGELES — The Los Angeles Dodgers are four wins from another National League pennant and eight from a feat baseball has not seen in a quarter-century. As they prepare to open the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, the question hanging over October is simple: Will they become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win three straight World Series titles?

According to the betting markets, the answer is more likely no than yes, but it is closer than ever.

The Dodgers have reached their shortest odds of the season at +125 to win the World Series, according to odds tracked by ESPN. That translates to an implied probability of about 44%, before accounting for the built-in sportsbook margin. Once that margin is removed, the market's true estimate falls closer to roughly 40%.

In other words, the betting public sees Los Angeles as a heavy favorite over any single rival, but still slightly less likely than the rest of the field combined to win it all.

The road so far

The two-time defending champions advanced to the NLCS after eliminating the Atlanta Braves in the National League Division Series, closing out the series with a 4-1 victory in Atlanta on Wednesday.

The series was not without drama. Atlanta evened the matchup at one game apiece early on and took away the Dodgers' home-field advantage, briefly raising questions about the champions. Even then, sportsbooks kept Los Angeles atop the board, signaling that oddsmakers were pricing in the depth of the Dodgers' roster rather than a single result.

Los Angeles entered the postseason with a first-round bye after another dominant regular season. The Dodgers won the NL West for the 13th time in 14 years and reached 100 wins for the sixth time in the past decade.

A familiar rival stands in the way

Next up is Milwaukee, the team widely viewed as the biggest obstacle in the National League.

The Brewers won 100 games for the first time in franchise history this season and will hold home-field advantage in the series. Milwaukee also won the regular-season series against Los Angeles 4-3.

Still, the Dodgers are installed as -160 favorites to win the NLCS, according to ESPN's odds, an implied probability of about 62%. The Brewers are listed at +310 to win the World Series.

History may also favor Los Angeles. The two teams met in last year's NLCS, and the Dodgers swept Milwaukee in four games despite the Brewers having swept the regular-season series 6-0. The Dodgers allowed just four runs in that series, and Milwaukee batted .118, the lowest average for any team in a postseason series of at least three games.

Game 1 of this year's NLCS is scheduled for Sunday night in Milwaukee, with Game 2 following Monday. The series then shifts to Dodger Stadium for Games 3 and 4 on Wednesday and Thursday. Pre-series projections rate the opening two games in Milwaukee as essentially coin flips.

The American League picture

Whoever emerges from the National League will face a field that has thinned considerably. The Tampa Bay Rays are the top remaining American League contender at +300 to win the World Series, while the Cleveland Guardians sit at 13-1 and the Chicago White Sox at 19-1.

The New York Yankees, considered one of the Dodgers' top challengers entering the postseason, are no longer among the favorites listed.

How the odds have shifted

The Dodgers' price has steadily shortened throughout October as rivals have fallen away.

Entering the postseason, sportsbooks set Los Angeles at around +200 to +230, an implied probability of roughly 30% to 33%. In March, the Dodgers were listed at +230 after their odds shortened from +350 earlier in the offseason.

The move to +125 reflects both the Dodgers' advancement and the elimination of other contenders, leaving a smaller path to a title.

Breaking down the math

To win a third straight title, the Dodgers must clear two more hurdles: the NLCS against Milwaukee and the World Series against the American League champion.

If the market's estimate of a roughly 62% chance of beating the Brewers is accurate, the odds imply that Los Angeles would then be about a 70% favorite in the World Series against whichever American League team advances.

Multiplying those figures produces an overall title probability in the low 40s, consistent with the World Series futures price.

Those numbers come with caveats. Short playoff series are notoriously unpredictable, and a hot pitcher or a single bad inning can swing a series. Betting odds also reflect where bettors are placing money, not just the strength of each team.

History is not on their side

Three straight titles remain one of baseball's rarest achievements. If Los Angeles completes the run, it would become just the fifth team to win three consecutive World Series, and the first since the Yankees' run from 1998 to 2000.

Last year's championship already made the Dodgers the first team to repeat as champions since those Yankees. Since then, the expanded playoff format, with more rounds and more teams, has made sustained October success even harder.

The bottom line

So will the Dodgers three-peat? The betting market puts their chances at roughly 40% to 44%, making them the single most likely champion by a wide margin, yet still facing better-than-even odds of falling short.

With the NLCS beginning Sunday in Milwaukee, the next week will go a long way toward deciding whether this Dodgers team joins baseball's most exclusive club or becomes another dynasty denied a historic third crown.