Elevated Oil Prices Strain Import-Dependent Economies Amid Middle East Disruptions

LONDON — Crude oil prices remain well above pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude trading near $105 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $94, pressuring economies that rely heavily on imported energy.

Prices have risen roughly 40 percent since the start of 2026, when an Iran-related conflict disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies. Gulf producers have partially restored exports, but tanker attacks, higher shipping and insurance costs, and intermittent disruptions have kept a risk premium in the market. Goldman Sachs has estimated geopolitical factors are adding more than $20 a barrel. Recent Houthi strikes on Saudi targets and vessels near Hormuz further supported prices.

Asian economies that depend on Middle Eastern crude have faced the most immediate effects. South and Southeast Asian countries saw sharp reductions in Gulf supply earlier in the year, prompting some to ration fuel or shorten work and school weeks. China's temporary suspension of refined-product exports added further tightness. India, South Korea, Japan, and several ASEAN nations continue to manage higher import bills that feed into inflation and manufacturing costs.

European countries have also been hit. France reported station outages earlier in the fall, and diesel shortages have raised freight and heating costs across the region. The United States, a net producer, has seen elevated domestic diesel prices, with some states recording record levels, though its impact is more muted than in pure importers.

Other heavily import-dependent nations, including Turkey, Pakistan, and several African economies, face similar pressure on current accounts and consumer prices. No official ranking of the "most affected" countries has been issued by the International Energy Agency or other bodies; exposure depends on import dependence, refining capacity, and existing subsidies.

OPEC has lowered its demand-growth forecasts, and higher prices are already curbing consumption in price-sensitive markets. Analysts say sustained prices above $100 a barrel risk further demand destruction while the conflict continues. No short-term resolution to the supply disruptions was reported.