Good Time to Buy SpaceX Stock? Shares Hover Near IPO Price After Historic Starship Catch and Tesla Merger Buzz

HAWTHORNE, Calif. — SpaceX has just achieved one of the biggest milestones in its history. Investors now want to know whether its stock, which has struggled since a blockbuster market debut, is ready to take off again.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, closed Friday at $139.11, down 0.6%. They slipped another 2% in after-hours trading.

The stock is now only slightly above its $135 initial public offering price from June. It is far below its 52-week high of $225.64 and has swung between that peak and a low of $104.83.

At Friday's close, SpaceX was valued at about $1.9 trillion.

Starship Breakthrough Comes After the Bell

The biggest news came after markets closed. On Saturday, SpaceX caught the upper stage of its Starship rocket with its launch tower's giant mechanical arms after the vehicle orbited Earth 14 times. It was the first time a spacecraft returning from orbit had been caught that way.

"We caught a Starship, and now everything changes," SpaceX spokesman Dan Huot said during the company's livestream.

The catch is a key step toward a fully reusable rocket, which SpaceX says could sharply cut the cost of reaching space. Starship is also central to NASA's plans to return astronauts to the moon.

The mission wasn't flawless. The rocket's Super Heavy booster aborted its own catch attempt on Friday and was destroyed over the Gulf of Mexico.

Monday will be the first trading session since the catch, and investors will be watching for a reaction.

Tesla Merger Talk

SpaceX shares have also been moved by speculation about a combination with Tesla, the electric vehicle maker also led by Elon Musk.

Bloomberg reported last week that SpaceX and Tesla were advancing merger talks that could lead to an announcement as early as December. Neither company has confirmed a deal. Some analysts have raised questions about whether one could clear regulatory and political hurdles.

A Rocky Ride Since the IPO

SpaceX's June debut was one of the most anticipated stock listings ever. After an early surge, the shares fell about 50% from their peak by late July.

The stock has stayed volatile since. It plunged 9% on Nov. 5 during a broad AI-stock selloff, then jumped 8.6% the next day when those stocks rebounded.

That swing shows how closely SpaceX now trades with AI companies, a link that grew after it absorbed Musk's artificial intelligence company earlier this year. The company has been spending heavily on computing infrastructure. In its third-quarter report, it raised its fourth-quarter capital spending forecast to $35 billion to $40 billion.

What Analysts Say

Wall Street remains largely optimistic. Most analysts covering the stock rate it a "buy," and their average price targets are around $250 to $265, well above current levels.

Price targets vary widely, though. JPMorgan raised its target to $500 in October, while other firms have set targets below $200.

Risks to Consider

Investors face several risks:

Valuation: the company is valued richly relative to its current earnings. Spending: AI and Starship development require huge capital outlays. Governance: Musk holds about 42% of the shares but about 82% of the voting power, which limits other shareholders' influence. Key-person risk: the company depends heavily on Musk, who also runs Tesla and other ventures.

Some technical analysts currently rate the stock a "sell" based on recent price trends.

For long-term investors who believe in SpaceX's space and AI ambitions, a share price near the IPO level may look appealing. Others may prefer to wait for more clarity on the Tesla talks and on whether the Starship breakthrough leads to steady progress.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should do their own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.