Australian Dollar Outlook - April 12, 2016

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar and NZ Dollar ground higher overnight, helped by stronger commodities, as the US dollar remained under pressure.

Australia: Data today in Australia we get the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian weekly consumer confidence at 9.30am followed by the NAB Survey at 11:30am AEST. Consumer confidence has fallen for three consecutive weeks but remains just above its long run average. This will be important to monitor ahead of the release of the 3 May Budget as discussions around policy appear to be impacting confidence. The RBA considers the NAB Business survey as an important tool in its assessment on the domestic economy. Recent business surveys have been mixed, in February the survey showed a notable improvement in business conditions offsetting the decline in the previous month.

Majors: In a backdrop of broad USD weakness, oil prices have continued their upward trend boosting other commodity prices which in turn also helped commodity linked currencies outperform. Crude oil traded around 2% higher, WTI managed to close above USD40/bbl for the second time in a month. Gold prices gained 1.4% to USD1258/oz. U.S reporting season kicks off this week and markets are expecting a tough reporting season with U.S banks reporting over the next few days, which will ensure markets remain sceptical on the improvements in the global backdrop. China’s CPI and PPI data suggest that the PBoC will be less aggressive in monetary easing and we may only see one further RRR cut in 2016 instead of three.

Economic Calendar 12 APR

• AU NAB Business Confidence/Conditions Mar
• JN Machine Tool Orders Mar
• IMF Latest Forecasts Released
• US Fed’s Harker, Williams and Lacker all speak

Bell Fx

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