Who Will Win the Rugby League World Cup? Kangaroos Lead Betting but Tonga and Samoa Loom After Early Upsets

Australia remain the clear favorites to win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, but a dramatic opening round has shaken up the tournament, with Tonga and Samoa emerging as serious threats and England's hopes already hanging by a thread.

The defending champion Kangaroos were installed at $1.60 to win the tournament after the first round, according to Australian bookmaker Picklebet, ahead of New Zealand at $4. Samoa and Tonga were each priced at $10, with every other nation considered a long shot.

The tournament, hosted by Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, runs from Oct. 15 to Nov. 15, with the final at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

Kangaroos survive a classic

Australia opened the tournament with a narrow 24-22 victory over New Zealand in front of 41,255 fans at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, the largest Test crowd in the city in more than 50 years.

Debutant winger Jack Bostock scored a hat trick, including a spectacular aerial try that proved decisive.

"We are fierce rivals and that was one of the best games of footy I have seen for a long time," Kangaroos coach Kevin Walters said.

Australian captain Isaah Yeo said the atmosphere set the tone for the tournament. "This World Cup feels different and it is only just getting started!" he said.

The win was a reminder of why Australia are favored. The Kangaroos have dominated international rugby league for decades and won the most recent World Cup, held in England in 2022. Their squad is drawn almost entirely from the National Rugby League, the world's strongest club competition.

But the close result also showed they are far from unbeatable.

Kiwis lose Ponga

New Zealand emerged from the opener with plenty of positives but suffered a major blow when fullback Kalyn Ponga broke his arm on his long-awaited Kiwis debut.

Ponga, who scored two second-half tries, played on with the injury for about 20 minutes before leaving the field. He has undergone surgery, and coach Stacey Jones described him as "a week-to-week proposition," leaving open the possibility of a return if New Zealand progress deep into the tournament.

"There's lots of stuff to be proud of, lots of stuff to like but there is a lot more to go in this tournament," Jones said.

Kiwis captain James Fisher-Harris said the occasion was memorable. "That was probably the best Australia versus New Zealand atmosphere I've played in to be honest," he said.

Jones made six changes for New Zealand's next match against the Cook Islands in Christchurch on Sunday, with Keano Kini replacing Ponga at fullback.

Tonga stun England

The biggest upset of the opening round came in Perth, where Tonga beat England 30-12 in front of a sellout crowd of 18,302.

Second-rower Haumole Olakau'atu scored two tries as Tonga controlled the match after leading 10-0 at halftime.

"Our defence was outstanding," Tonga coach Kristian Woolf said. "We've got depth and quality, and we can go and do something with it now."

Woolf said the win was "something that will carry us through the tournament."

England coach Brian McDermott said his team had competed hard but were let down by their own errors. "It was a really good contest," he said.

Tonga's strong showing reinforced their reputation as a rising force. Many of their players are established NRL stars, and the team has drawn huge support from the Tongan diaspora in Australia and New Zealand.

Samoa run riot

Samoa sent an even louder message, thrashing France 78-4 in Sydney. The 2021 World Cup finalists, who lost to Australia in the final, have again assembled a squad packed with NRL talent.

Papua New Guinea also impressed, beating Lebanon 42-18 in front of a passionate home crowd in Port Moresby, while Fiji defeated the Cook Islands 40-12 in Newcastle.

England on the brink

England now face the prospect of missing the semifinals for the first time. They must beat France on Saturday and Papua New Guinea on Oct. 30 and hope other results go their way.

The tournament's format adds to the pressure. Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands play in Group A, with the top two advancing to the semifinals. The other six teams, England, Lebanon, Samoa, France, Papua New Guinea and Tonga, play in a combined group, with only the top two progressing.

After the first round, Samoa led the combined table on points difference, ahead of Papua New Guinea and Tonga.

Who will win?

On current form and betting markets, Australia remain the team to beat. Their depth, experience and home advantage make them strong favorites to lift the trophy in Brisbane on Nov. 15.

New Zealand, despite the loss of Ponga, pushed the Kangaroos to the limit in the opener and could meet them again in the knockout rounds.

But Tonga and Samoa have shown they are capable of beating anyone. Both have squads full of NRL players and will be strongly motivated to win a first World Cup. Whichever emerges from the combined group as the top team will avoid Australia in the semifinals if the Kangaroos top Group A, potentially opening a path to the final.

Papua New Guinea, roared on by home crowds, and Fiji are also capable of causing upsets, though they are considered outsiders for the title.

What's next

The second round begins Friday, with Tonga facing Lebanon. Papua New Guinea host Samoa in Port Moresby and England meet France in Perth on Saturday, while New Zealand play the Cook Islands in Christchurch and Australia face Fiji in Brisbane on Sunday.

The semifinals will be played on Nov. 7 in Newcastle and Nov. 8 in Sydney, with the final in Brisbane on Nov. 15.

With several matches still to come, the battle for semifinal spots is far from settled, but the opening round has already shown that this World Cup may be one of the most competitive in the sport's history.