The summit will be held at a US Air Force base outside of Alaska's largest city of Anchorage, where protesters have put up signs to show solidarity with Ukraine
The summit will be held at a US Air Force base outside of Alaska's largest city of Anchorage, where protesters have put up signs to show solidarity with Ukraine AFP

US President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin meet Friday in Alaska in a high-stakes, high-risk summit that could prove decisive for the future of Ukraine.

Putin will step onto Western soil for the first time since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and on which Russia has not relented, making rapid gains just before the summit.

Trump extended the invitation at the Russian leader's suggestion, but the US president has since been defensive and warned that the meeting could be over within minutes if Putin does not compromise.

Every word and gesture will be closely watched by European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not included and has publicly refused pressure from Trump to surrender territory seized by Russia.

Trump has called the summit a "feel-out meeting" to test Putin, whom he last saw in 2019.

"If it's a bad meeting, it'll end very quickly, and if it's a good meeting, we're going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future," Trump said Thursday.

He gave the summit a one-in-four chance of failure.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to a question from Russian state TV by saying that Moscow would not make guesses on the outcome of the meeting.

"We never make any predictions ahead of time," Lavrov said after he reached Alaska, wearing what appeared to be a shirt with "USSR" written across it in Cyrillic script.

"... our position is clear and unambiguous. We will present it," he said.

Trump has promised to consult with European leaders and Zelensky, saying that any final agreement would come in a three-way meeting with Putin and the Ukrainian president to "divvy up" territory.

Trump has boasted of his relationship with Putin, blamed predecessor Joe Biden for the war and vowed before his return to the White House in January to bring peace within 24 hours.

But despite repeated calls to Putin, and a stunning February 28 White House meeting in which Trump publicly berated Zelensky, the Russian leader has shown no signs of compromise.

Trump has acknowledged his frustration with Putin and warned of "very severe consequences" if he does not accept a ceasefire -- but also agreed to see him in Alaska.

The talks are set to begin at 11:30 am (1900 GMT) Friday at the Elmendorf Air Force Base, the largest US military installation in Alaska and a Cold War base for surveillance of the former Soviet Union.

Adding to the historical significance, the United States bought Alaska in 1867 from Russia -- a deal Moscow has cited to show the legitimacy of land swaps.

The Kremlin said it expected Putin and Trump to meet alone with interpreters before a working lunch with aides.

Neither leader is expected to step off the base into Anchorage, Alaska's largest city, where protesters have put up signs of solidarity with Ukraine.

Exiled Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya -- whose husband Alexei Navalny died in prison last year -- urged the two leaders to strike a deal to "release Russian political activists and journalists, Ukrainian civilians, (and) those who were imprisoned for anti-war statements and posts on social media."

The summit marks a sharp shift from the approach of Western European leaders and Biden, who vowed no discussion with Russia on Ukraine's future unless Ukraine was also at the table.

Putin faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, leading him to curtail travel sharply since the war began.

However, the United States is not party to the Hague tribunal and Trump's Treasury Department temporarily eased sanctions on top Russian officials to allow them to travel and use bank cards in Alaska.

Zelensky said on Tuesday that the Alaska summit was a "personal victory" for Putin.

With the trip, Putin "is coming out of isolation" and he has "somehow postponed sanctions," which Trump had vowed to impose on Russia without progress.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also called for security guarantees for Ukraine -- an idea downplayed by Trump at the start of his latest term.

Daniel Fried, a former US diplomat now at the Atlantic Council, said Trump had the means to pressure Putin but that the Russian could distract him by seeming to offer something new.

Putin, Fried said, "is a master of the new shiny object which turns out to be meaningless."

US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin
US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin AFP
Demonstrators wave flags and hold a banner as they rally in support of Ukraine along Seward Highway in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 14, 2025, on the eve of the scheduled meeting between the US and Russian presidents
Demonstrators wave flags and hold a banner as they rally in support of Ukraine along Seward Highway in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 14, 2025, on the eve of the scheduled meeting between the US and Russian presidents AFP