The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Equity markets calm on Friday with Dow staging bounce back; US bond yields higher
  • But the meltdown moves to commodities with gold down 5% and silver down close to 10%
  • Euro, Aussie end last week on more upbeat note after heavy losses
  • USD loses ground towards weekly close after massive gains last week
  • Risk appetite sees early improvement on Monday despite lack of political action
  • Greece and Europe in focus now managed default seems most likely outcome

AUD/USD
The Aussie found resistance just below 0.9870 on numerous occasions on Friday, but leading into the new week, traders are likely to be a little more cautious. While the bias remains to the downside, the market might take some time to settle this week after a volatile session last week. Traders will be looking for reversal signals between 0.9870 and 0.9930.

GOLD
Gold pushed up toward resistance at 1760 on Friday before it was hit by heavy selling as the panic shifted into precious metals. Gold broke below 1700 triggering the completion of a multi-week double top and this now presents a very bearish picture. A move back towards 1700 is expected at some point but a break below 1630 is also a trigger for new shorts.

EUR/USD
The Euro has actually held quite steady in recent trading and the pair now looks comfortable in its trading range between 1.3400 and 1.3600. The focus remains to the downside but traders will be cautious committing to new trades before we’ve seen Europe and North America open.

GBP/USD
Like the Euro, the pound has settled into a lower trading range as bears attention shifted from the currency markets into precious metals. The focus will remain to the downside with intra-day resistance seen at 1.5500 and major resistance at 1.5600.

USD/JPY
The dollar-yen got as low as 76.12 on Friday but the pair is still yet to make a serious assault on major support at 76.00. As per the last two months, traders will continue to play the range. Short-term resistance is seen at 77.00 with major resictance seen at 77.70.

SILVER
The selling frenzy continued on silver on Friday with the pair dropping around 20% after support at 36.00 was broken. From here, this market is likely to become quite tricky to trade as silver tries to consolidate after the move. A move back to 33.30 can be used for new shorts as can a break below 29.80.

USD/CHF
The dollar-Swiss has produced quite a bearish pattern up at the highs and this could result in a move back to support at 89.30. As long as 89.30 holds, traders are likely to continue to focus on the upside.

GBP/JPY
The sterling-yen pushed back towards resistance at 119.20 before rolling back lower and this current trading bracket is likely to define trade in the near term. Until 119.20 is breached the market is unlikely to consider long positions.

AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY is displaying some strength at lower levels and a move above 75.20 could be enough for some traders to consider new longs. That said, until we see a move above 75.20 the focus will remain to the downside.

OIL
While we have so many concerns out of Europe, crude oil is likely to remain under pressure. The weaker data out of China is also clearly bearish for oil. Any move back to 82.00 could be seen as a selling opportunity with potential targets back towards 78.00.

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