Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar traded at a new 3½ year low on Friday as the market digested the weak local employment data from Thursday.
Australia: The Australian Dollar has started the week with an 87 cent handle as we look forward to a week with very little new economic news due to be released this week in Australia and overseas.

In Australia we will see December inflation figures from TDMI today followed by the quarterly Q4 CPI figures on Wednesday where we expect a rise of 0.6% in the last quarter which should see the average yearly increase comfortably in the middle of the range of 2 to 3% where the RBA has traditionally said no change in monetary policy is necessary. If the trend toward higher unemployment continues we would expect the slight easing bias they have at the moment to continue.

Early this afternoon we will see China's Q4 GDP number as well as December figures for fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales. Most analysts expect a figure of 7.6% for the GDP yoy which is lower than the Q3 result of 7.8% y-o-y. As always a stronger or weaker number than expected could have an effect on the movement of the AUD later today.

Majors: On Friday in the US December housing starts came in very close to estimates of 985k versus the actual 999k result. Industrial production came in at a rise of 0.3% for last month which was in line with predictions.

The University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for January on a preliminary basis was lower at 80.4 as compared to December's final reading of 83.5. The picture in the UK was better again as retail sales expanded strongly with sales up 2.8% month-on-month and 6.1% y-o-y.
This has continued to support the recent strength of the GBP.

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Ireland saw their investment credit rating restored after doing it very tough since the GFC. There is a real lack of new economic news scheduled for this week with the US seeing weekly jobless claims on Thursday as well as existing home sale figures.

US markets will be closed today for Martin Luther King Day while New Zealand celebrates Wellington Anniversary Day.
Economic Calendar
20 JAN AU TD Securities Inflation MoM/YoY Dec
CH GDP 4Q, Industrial Production Dec, Retail Sales Dec
JP Industrial Production Nov
US Martin Luther King Day Holiday