BUSINESS

ANZ: Home prices to stabilize

ANZ Bank is predicting that home prices will stabilize this year and remain flat to an average of $550,000　as a consequence of expected rising interest rates.

Downer flags another delay on RailCorp project

Downer EDI informed the Australian Stock Exchange on Thursday that it is set to take a hit of up to $250 million on its Waratah train project, apart from the $190 million provision the company had previously booked in June 2010.

Australian dollar outlook 27/1/2011

The Australian dollar has been largelyunaffected by last night's FOMC rate announcement.Given there was no new news from the Federal Reserve,the reactioEdit Htmln from currency markets was relativelysubdued.
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Overhead Resistance Versus Break-Out Potential

FNArena has added another video to its Investors Education section on the website.ATW's Jerry Simmons has observed many USD-oriented assets are facing overhead resistance. This offers two potential scenarios. Either resistance proves too strong or we will experience a bullish break-out through these key price levels. Simmons expects a definitive outcome in this battle between bears and bulls within the coming week.SummaryIn this video, Jerry Simmons, Senior Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc, analyses the trading range in which many USD-denominated currency pairs have found themselves for the past weeks, including the metals such as copper, gold, silver and platinum. He concludes that we should expect a breakout with a sustained directional move within a week. This is also in line with the big traditional January move. The same sideways market has characterised the 30 yr bond market and the 10 yr note markets and the same potential for a sustainable break-out exists in these two markets.Details:AUDUSD:There is overhead resistance at 0.9970 – 1.0030. If we get a confirmed break-out above 1.0030, chances are we will move further up quickly by 120 to 170 pips, to 1.0150 – 1.0200.Support below the market is to be found at 0.9800 – 0.9850. Should we get a confirmed break-out below 0.9800, a swift move further down by90 - 140 pipsto the next level at 0.9660 – 0.9710 can be expected, with the emphasis being on the lower margin of those two, i.e. 0.9660.COPPER:TTPs constructed in a recent video projected the top of the price move at current levels.Current levels could be exceeded up to a maximum level of 4.62 and still maintain the validity of the Double Top structure. The current level also re-tests the May 2008 high. If copper rolls over now, it would come off that May 2008 high and the Double Top formation, i.e. a down move could be expected to develop strong momentum and be sustainable.GOLD:The gold market is currently characterised by two key support zones below and 2 key resistance zones above3 the market:2nd resistance zone above: 1420 - 14351st resistance zone above: 1390 - 1395Current market1st support zone below : 1350 - 13552nd support zone below: 1317 - 1330.To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video (originally from November 29, 2010) titled "Analysis AUDUSD, US, HG, GC" click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.Here's the direct link: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_front_videos&vid=22All views expressed are Jerry Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW). ATW recently set up shop in Australia through the establishment of ATW Australia (since mid-2010).FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.The above mentioned videos can be accessed via the FNArena Investor Education section at http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_minc_education)About ATW AustraliaFounded in June 2010, ATW Australia is a “one-stop-shop for all a trader needs to succeed”: quality education for new traders, superb advanced trading education, fast unfiltered data, a world-leading trading platform, customer oriented competitive brokerage, quality ‘Made in the USA’ specialized trading computers, trading magazines, and the all-important psychological mentoring and coaching for traders. The trading educational products are provided by the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. in New York, all other services are provided by a network of partners that were chosen based on their superior products and services in their specific field of expertise. FNArena is one such partner.To learn more visit www.advancedtradingworkshop.com.au.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Oil Search Upside Remains Tied To PNG Project

By Chris ShawOil Search recorded solid production for the December quarter of 2010, the result being full year output of 7.66mmboe (million barrels of oil equivalent) came in a little above the company's guidance of a result between 7.2-7.4mmboe.Guidance for 2011 is for a result of 6.2-6.7mmboe. Analysts at Citi note the coming year will show lower production thanks to planned shut-downs in the second and fourth quarters related to work on the LNG project in Papua New Guinea.Longer-term, Deutsche Bank notes while production in 2012 should be higher than in 2011 it should then be relatively flat in 2013, which should limit earnings growth over the next couple of years as the LNG project continues to progress.Given the solid production numbers in the period, revenues for the December quarter were also better than the market had been anticipating, the US$156.8 million in sales revenues beating UBS's forecast for the period by 19%.The one minor disappointment in the quarterly report was what BA-ML viewed as an implied delay to drilling work at the Hides project, which is now scheduled for sometime this year rather than the previous guidance of sometime in the coming six months. RBS similarly picked up on this, but sees it as a short-term issue only for Oil Search.On the back of the better than expected result there have been increases to 2010 earnings forecasts across the market, BA Merrill Lynch lifting its net profit after tax forecast by 14% to US$131 million. RBS Australia's forecast for 2010 has increased by US$11 million to $131.2 million, while Citi has made minor changes to its numbers.Numbers for 2011 have generally been reduced though, Citi and Deutsche Bank both lowering their numbers by 16% to account for lower production in the year ahead. In earnings per share (EPS) terms forecasts for Oil Search according to the FNArena database now range from US9-11c for 2010 and from US10-12.8c in 2011.The changes in earnings forecasts factored in by the market has done little to impact on valuations for Oil Search, JP Morgan noting the lift in its 2010 numbers was largely offset by cuts in both 2011 and 2012.The impact on price targets have been similarly minor, UBS lifting its target slightly at the same time as BA-ML has dropped its target by 20c. The average price target according to the FNArena database stands at $7.94.Recommendations are also unchanged, the database showing Oil Search is rated as Buy four times, Hold three times and Underperform once. UBS retains its Buy rating, continuing to see upside for the stock as production increases and from the potential development of a third LNG train at the PNG project.This scope for expansion at the PNG project equally helps underpin Deutsche Bank's Buy rating, while JP Morgan is a little more conservative given an expansion requires sufficient gas reserves to be proved up. As this is yet to occur, the broker does not ascribe full value of any expansion in its model at present. Citi offers the same argument in justifying its Hold rating.RBS Australia also rates Oil Search as a Hold, but points out on a two to three year view the stock offers good value as the PNG LNG project is gradually de-risked and as expansion options crystallise.Shares in Oil Search today are slightly higher and as at 12.40pm the stock was up 3c at $6.78. This compares to a range over the past year of $4.97 to $7.20 and implies upside of almost 17% to the consensus price target in FNArena's database.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Daily forex forecast - 26/1/2011

The release yesterday of CPI (Consumer Price Index) sent the Australian Dollar down with the figure coming in for the quarter at 0.4% (compared with a forecast of 0.5%) and in doing so dampened any rate rise expectations in the near term by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Property developer Mirvac to take $215M provision

Real estate investment company Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) says it will take a $215 million provision against inventories because of slower than expected sales and oversupply and heavy discounting in regional markets.

Qantas flight to Melbourne suffers pressure loss in mid-air

Up to 99 passengers aboard a Qantas Airways en route to Melbourne got the scare of their lives when the aircraft’s suddenly depressurised mid-air and sent the plane rapidly plunging from its cruising altitude of 36,000 feet, down to 10,000 feet.

South Australians drop daily water use

South Australians have gradually cut their daily water consumption by a third in the last decade based on figures compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Chevron inks 20-year gas deal with Kyushu Electric

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) says its Australian subsidiary has signed a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Kyushu Electric Power Co. for a portion of Chevron's offtake of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gorgon Project.

Newcrest hails Q4 output, downgrades 2011 projection

Gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd sent out its financial report on Tuesday, with varying results, where the company outlined its record production for the December quarter and its decision to nudge back a bit the firm’s full year gold production guidance.

Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 25/01/2011

The advance estimate of Germany´s composite purchasing managers index for January lifted from 60.3 to 61.0 - the highest reading since June 2006. Manufacturing fell from 60.7 to 60.2 but services rose from 59.2 to 60.0.

Daily forex forecast - 25/1/2011

The Australian Dollar dropped from 0.9890 to 0.9865 in quick fashion yesterday on the release of a weaker than expected reading in Producer Price Index.

Report says Australia will have a new face in 2020

Ten years ahead and Australia will be a sporting a new identity as a new report predicts of radical changes in the way the average Australian earns a living, chooses a house and whiles away leisure time, if that moment is still a possibility by the next decade.

Australia slowly emerges as prime market for online retail

Australia is fast-gaining a reputation as a global hub for online shopping, with no less than US giant internet retailer eBay reportedly alluding to the Aussie market as a viable and standout business consideration for web retailers.

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