BUSINESS

David Jones to let go of sass & bide

Department store David Jones Ltd (ASX:DJS) will end its supply arrangement with Australian brand sass & bide following its decision not to acquire a stake in the brand.

Material Matters: Aluminium, Copper, Steel and Coal

By Chris ShawFor Goldman Sachs, aluminium is the least preferred of the base metals on a 12-month view. But even allowing for this, the broker suggests there are some emerging signs the longer-term outlook for the metal is beginning to improve.Global aluminium consumption was better than Goldman Sachs had forecast in 2010, which has positive implications for the demand side of its model in coming years. Some producer constraint is needed, but the broker is now forecasting market deficits from 2013 onwards.Also supportive is China's growing focus on energy efficiency, which could mean domestic aluminium production in that country lags the expected increase in demand. Goldman Sachs is forecasting Chinese demand growth of 8.2% through 2015, a figure it suggests may prove conservative.The release of substantial inventories may hold back the rate of price appreciation in Goldman Sachs's view, so for that reason the broker suggests it remains too early for all but long-term investors to look for direct exposure to aluminium.Goldman Sachs is forecasting average annual aluminium prices of US103c per pound this year, US106c per pound in 2012 and US110c per pound in 2013.Over in copper, Credit Suisse suggests for prices to commence a further leg up LME stocks need to fall. A key indicator behind this dynamic, according to the broker, is the SHFE-LME spread. The current Shanghai discount relative to LME prices suggests China is not experiencing the copper squeeze that many have expected.One explanation is China is currently de-stocking, but Credit Suisse argues current price activity could also be explained by an acceleration in substitution for the metal. Either way, the broker's view is China is unlikely to be able to support exports for long, so there should be an acceleration of the tightening of the Shanghai market in coming weeks and months.To reflect this the broker has revised up its estimates, Credit Suisse now forecasting average annual copper prices of US$4.70 per pound this year, US$4.50 per pound in 2012 and US$3.80 per pound in 2013. This compares to previous forecasts of US$3.95 per pound this year and US$3.90 per pound in 2012.Citi has updated on the bulk commodities sector, noting the recent floods in Queensland are likely to keep Australian coal exports constrained for several months given waterlogged mines, low inventories and some damage to infrastructure.On Citi's best case estimates the coking coal market will see a shortfall of 18 million tonnes, something that has already pushed prices higher given gains of nearly 50% to US$324 per tonne since the flooding began around the start of the year. Given monsoon season is still some way from being over and with inventories at critical lows, Citi's view is coal prices have yet to peak. In steel, industry consultant MEPS is forecasting global crude stainless steel output for 2010 will have hit an all-time high of 30.45 million tonnes. If the group's forecast is correct this would be 7.4% above the previous record recorded in 2006 and 24% above 2009 levels.The record is unlikely to last long, as MEPS is forecasting total output of more than 31 million tonnes in 2011. Most regions will contribute to this, with Japanese production likely to be up 27% from 2009 levels, while Chinese production is forecast to have more than doubled since 2006. EU activity also picked up in the final quarter of 2010, while MEPS notes US production has also risen strongly from 2009 levels. In steel generally, MEPS expects total global output for 2010 of just over 1.4 billion tonnes, an increase of 16% or 190 million tonnes from 2009's output. Accounting for about 50% of the increase will be stronger production in China, the US and Japan, while German and South Korean output has also improved.MEPS sees the economic outlook for 2011 as cautiously optimistic, with certain sections of Western economies performing well but construction markets still experiencing depressed activity levels. This will keep a lid on steel output in the coming years, with MEPS forecasting total global steel production in 2011 of 1,485 million tonnes.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.
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Daily forex forecast - 7/2/2011

The Aussie rallied half-a-US-cent during local trade on Friday hitting a high of 1.0199 after The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled in its quarterly monetary policy statement that further rate rises are on the cards.

Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 2/7/2011

S non-farm payrolls (employment) rose by just 36,000 in January. While the report was well short of expectations of job gains near 148,000, weakness was attributed to harsh snow storms in the month.

Commonwealth Bank allots $1B to assist small businesses in FNQ

Small businesses in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania are expected to benefit from a $1 billion lending package set aside by the Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) to support businesses across flood and cyclone affected areas.

Xstrata Mount Isa Mines resumes operations

Xstrata North Queensland is recommencing its Mount Isa Mines operations and is focusing on getting its North Queensland operations back online following Cyclone Yasi.

Results: Market Tick For Tabcorp Interim

Gaming company Tabcorp Holdings has posted half-year net profit up 2.9% on the first half of 2009-10.Tabcorp told the ASX yesterday that net profit in the six months to December 31 was $265.5 million, up from $257.9 million in the prior corresponding half year.Revenue was $2.2576 billion, up 3.5% from $2.1807 billion.Tabcorp declared an interim dividend of 24c per share fully franked.Tabcorp said its normalised net profit for the half year was $272 million, up 3% on the prior corresponding half.Normalised earnings per share were 42.6c, down 2.1%, following a capital raising, the company said.Investors looked at the figures and liked what they saw, sending the shares up 3%, or 21c, to $7.11.Tabcorp chief executive officer Elmer Funke Kupper said that each of the company's three operating divisions was forecasting an improvement in revenue and earnings performance in the second half of the financial year.The company said the floods cost it $10 million in lost revenue in January."The recent floods put some uncertainty in the immediate outlook for consumer spending in Queensland," Mr Funke Kupper said."Nevertheless, we are expecting to see positive underlying growth in the second half of the year."This gives us confidence that we are on the right path with our investment programs," he said.Tabcorp said the result was boosted by tax credits totalling $9 million, after credits of $16 million in the prior corresponding half year.Normalised net revenue was $2262.9 million, up 3.3%.All three business divisions achieved positive revenue growth, with the strongest growth recorded in Casinos, Tabcorp said.Casinos: EBITDA $201.0 million, up 5.2%. EBIT $153.9 million, up 4.1%. Casino expenses grew by 5.8%.EBITDA at Star City in New South Wales increased 4.1%. Revenues were up 6.5% as the business expanded its product offering and opened new gaming areas on the Main Gaming Floor.The three Queensland properties showed a recovery in performance following a difficult year in 2010. Revenues increased 4.7% and EBITDA grew by 7.0%. All main lines of business showed positive revenue growth.Wagering: EBITDA $187.7 million, up 3.5%. EBIT $151.9 million, up 3.0%. Wagering revenues were up 2.1%. Variable contribution grew by 3.1%. Expenses increased by 2.6%. They continue to be well controlled, with investments in expansion initiatives offset by savings in other areas.Gaming: EBITDA $172.6 million, up 3.0%. EBIT $148.4 million, up 2.3%. Expenses were up 4.6%, driven by costs associated with the investment in the Casinos business. Expenses continued to be well controlled in the Wagering and Gaming divisions.Tabcorp chairman John Story described the result as "sound"."It was pleasing that all three operating divisions recorded positive revenue and earnings growth," Mr Story said."During the half, the company announced further investments in its Queensland casinos and in Wagering. Each of the divisions now has attractive growth programs in place."In October 2010, Tabcorp announced that it would pursue a demerger of its Casinos business from its Wagering, Gaming and Keno businesses. The work to implement the proposed demerger is underway and the target date remains 30 June 2011."The work to implement the proposed demerger is underway and the target date remains 30 June 2011," Mr Story said.Tabcorp said it planned to have a scheme booklet available during April 2011, and to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting in late May or early June to allow shareholders to vote on the demerger proposal.Tabcorp said the recent Queensland floods had affected trading at its Treasury Hotel and Casino in Brisbane, with "a significant downturn in visitation'' during the floods and immediately afterwards."Tabcorp estimates that the immediate revenue impact of the January floods and wet weather was approximately $10 million."Despite the impact from the floods, normalised group revenues grew 2.5 per cent in January 2011 indicating good underlying growth,'' the company said.Tabcorp said its other casino properties experienced minimal impact and continued to operate normally, with Jupiters on the Gold Coast and Star City continuing with the momentum experienced in the first half."The Wagering business was also impacted by the wet weather across Queensland, NSW and Victoria with an increase in the number of abandoned races."

Australian dollar outlook 4/2/2011

The AUD has opened almost half a US centhigher today, supported by high commodity prices.Despite rising tensions in Egypt and the ECB leaving itsrates unchanged in Europe the AUD held onto its recentgains, performing extremely well in mixed overnight trade.

Daily forex forecast - 4/2/2011

The Australian Dollar has jumped from yesterday's open of 1.0070/80 to highs near 1.0160 after a volatile offshore session.

World Market Overview 4/2/2011

U.S. stocks drifted just below the flatline Thursday as investors eyed encouraging earnings and stronger January sales among retailers, with a backdrop of continued unrest in Egypt.

The Overnight Report: The Approachable Uncle Ben

By Greg PeelThe Dow gained 20 points or 0.2% while the S&P added 0.2% to 1307 and the Nasdaq also added 0.2%.Australia's December trade balance surprised economists yesterday by recording a similar surplus to November of about $2bn. Expectations were for $1.6bn. The result gave the Aussie another kicker given, all things being equal, a strong surplus implies pressure on the RBA to raise. However, it will no doubt be a different tale in January when weather impacts really start to make their mark.As we contemplate the effects of lost exports, both resource and agricultural, and lost tourism which is also an “export”, we note the service sector in January was even more dour than the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector managed to slightly slow its rate of contraction but service sector contraction picked up pace with the PMI dropping to 45.5 from 46.4 in December.China does not separate out a construction sector number but rather notes manufacturing (55% of the economy) and non-manufacturing (45%). The non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 56.4 in January from 56.5 on Beijing's numbers. Meanwhile the UK service PMI surged to 54.5 (49.7), the eurozone's ticked up to 55.9 (54.2) and the US came in with 59.4 (57.1). That's the best US result since 2005, and services represent over 70% of the US economy.Again we see the “old world” forging ahead as the “new world” eases back. The UK results have been no less than astonishing.Wall Street nevertheless opened weaker last night, spooked by a weak result from Dow component Merck and ongoing uncertainty in Egypt and despite the positive service PMI and surprisingly healthy chain store sales for a snowbound January. But then along came Uncle Ben.The Fed conceded late last year that perhaps it was time to address its longstanding policy of aloof detachment – one which sees the issue of official statements and minutes, appearances before government and financial industry groups, and not much else. Taking a leaf out of the ECB's book, the Fed has decided it's time to open up to “the people”, and as such last night Ben Bernanke participated in a “meet the press” session which to date has been a very rare thing indeed.Unsurprisingly, Bernanke was hammered with questions about QE2 but clearly he needed only to point to the improving US recovery for justification. Indeed, Uncle Ben suggested the US economy was running even better than hoped, and despite recent data supporting that view and despite stock prices quantifying that view Wall Street took this as good news and the market turned around.The indices moved into the black in the last hour ahead of tonight's all important monthly jobs data. Economists are looking for 145,000 new jobs to be added.The strong US services PMI and talk from Uncle Ben helped to push the US dollar index higher, up 0.8% to 77.75. The Aussie nevertheless marched to its own tune of strong surplus and added 0.7 of a cent from 24 hours ago to US$1.0160. Gold suddenly decided last night that yes, the Middle East is a worry and yes, perhaps some safe haven investment might be sensible. It rose US$18.20 to US$1354.50/oz.Oil is playing an uncertain game around this US$90 level in WTI, and last night fell back US16c to US$90.71/bbl. The WTI is no doubt being affected psychologically by the other “big” oil contract – Brent – which is wondering whether or not to push on above US$100/bbl. It was a steady night for base metals in London.Strength in the US dollar was also assisted by last night's ECB monthly monetary policy decision. The central bank left its rate on hold at 1.0% and Jean-Claude Trichet talked down current inflation pressures much to the surprise of economists. It will be a watch and wait game in the eurozone.The SPI Overnight rose 13 points or 0.3%.Rudi will be a guest on BoardRoomRadio's Friday Afternoon Round Table this afternoon which will be available for live video streaming from 3pm and for download from 4pm. [Note: All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Cyclone Yasi devastates cane crops

Australia's sugarcane crop has suffered devastation as farmers venture out to survey their properties in the wake of category five Cyclone Yasi, whose destructive eye broke land at Mission Beach and passed over Tully, inland bound, last night.Crops have been devastated in Yasi’s wake, the hardest hit being sugarcane – with initial loss estimates at around $500 million for the industry alone. A sugar-growing heartland, sugarcane growers in north Queensland will again bear the brunt of losses,...

Banana industry hit badly

The Australian Banana Grower's Council today warned consumers that the Australian banana industry, which escaped flood damage, had suffered devastation as a result of tropical cyclone Yasi.Banana growers across Far North Queensland, in particular Innisfail and Tully, have been the worst affected by the cyclone, according to ABGC Chairman Cameron MacKay.

Canberra maintains high office vacancy rates

Canberra continues to report double vacancy rates in the last six months with figures slowing slightly to 13.4 percent from 14.1 percent reports the Property Council of Australia’s Office Market Report.

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