Global events during March, including ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, the surge in oil prices, and supply disruptions from the tragedy in Japan, have dampened US economic growth in the first half of 2011, according to the April 2011 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (OTC Bulletin Board: FNMA) Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group.

The slowdown in growth is expected to be temporary, however, with a modest acceleration in economic growth projected for the second half of the year. The group forecasts economic growth to average 3.1 percent for 2011, a downgrade from 3.5 percent projected in the prior forecast.

Home sales were weak in the first part of 2011, with distressed sales (foreclosure and short sales) continuing to account for more than a third of total existing home sales. In turn, a rising share of distressed sales and the winding down of various programs to support the housing market have caused home price measures to decline.

"Home price expectations have deteriorated during the past several months, which could cause some potential homebuyers to remain on the sidelines -- and further sharp cutbacks in housing demand would pose a risk to the fragile housing recovery," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.

"We expect a little more decline in house prices at the national level than we had thought previously, but expect prices to begin stabilizing later this year."

On the upside, recent employment reports have been very strong, with more than 230,000 private sector payroll jobs added in each of the last two months.

"We anticipate there will be continued reasonably good news in employment through the rest of the year," said Duncan.

"If that continues, we expect housing to move in a similar positive direction -- hopefully by the second half of 2011."