Online Risk Calculator: Scientists Develop ‘Ubble’ Test That Predicts Risk Of Dying Within 5 Years

Researchers have created an online tool that helps predict a person’s death risk within five years. The tool uses a questionnaire created based on data on lifestyle habits that affects longevity, according to the report from Gizmodo.

The study, published in the journal The Lancet, used data from UK Biobank, a large long-term study in the U.K. Researchers analysed 655 various measures that influence the chance of early deaths. Using these data, they formulated questions, 13 for men and 11 for women, which should produce a percentage of death risk in the next five years.

"We found that the variables that most accurately predicted death from all causes within five years did not need to be measured by physical examination, but could be reported by individuals through a questionnaire," study authors Erik Ingelsson and Andrea Ganna wrote in Gizmodo.

For instance, researchers asked people to rate their health status and report on their walking pace, which happened to be two strong predictors of causes of death among men and women. The study also found that in people who do not suffer from any major disease, smoking habits were measured as the strongest predictor of death in five years.

The researchers said that the study allowed them to compare different predictors for overall and specific deaths, in a method that has never been conducted before. They believe that people can use the tool to become more aware of their health status. Furthermore, health organisations and health personnel can also use the tool to identify people who are at high risk for premature death.

There are limitations to the study, as Ingelsson and Ganna admitted. One is that the participants of the large biobank study do not represent the whole population of the United Kingdom. Another limitation is that the calculator can only predict the risk within five years; anything beyond that remains unknown.

The online risk calculator website was designed with help from Sense About Science, as noted in The Guardian. Questions are intended for men and women U.K. residents aged 40 to 70 years old.

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