Experts Overwhelmingly Pick Celtics Over Heat

Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics looks to pass against Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on September 23, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.

The Boston Celtics are betting favorites against the Miami Heat in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. A look at the expert predictions for the series suggests that the Heat have an even smaller chance to pull off the upset.

Of the 19 expert picks at ESPN.com, 15 have predicted the Celtics to reach the 2022 NBA Finals. It’s a clean sweep at CBSSports.com, where all eight of the publication’s experts picked Boston to eliminate Miami. Only three of Sports Illustrated’s 14 experts think the Heat will outlast the Celtics in the conference finals.

It’d be hard to blame the Heat and their fans if they feel a little disrespected at all of the predictions. It was only two seasons ago that Miami defeated Boston in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo were Miami’s best players during that postseason run and are back as the Heat’s three leading scorers in 2022.

15 of 19 experts are picking the Celtics to beat the Heat. @IzGutierrez @BobbyMarks42 @OmarESPN @Sedano believe in #HEATCulture, and so do I! #HeatIn6 pic.twitter.com/1Rrdl9IL1x
— Giovanni Sanchez (@TheRealGSanchez) May 17, 2022

Obviously experts are picking @celtics over @MiamiHEAT. @celtics has players who can hit 3s consistently, and a great defense. But it won't matter if @MiamiHEAT brings the heat, shakes their confidence and finds a way to contain those 3s effectively. #NBAPlayoffs2022 pic.twitter.com/kU5vicCcn8
— Mr.TUNUNGINI (@MTunungini) May 17, 2022

The Heat have the home-court advantage in the series. Miami earned the East’s No. 1 seed by finishing two games ahead of Boston in the regular-season standings.

Miami had four days off between the end of their second-round series and Game 1 of the conference Finals. The Heat needed six games to eliminate the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round after dismissing the Atlanta Hawks in a five-game first-round series.

Boston only has one day to rest for Miami in between its Game 7 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and Game 1 against the Heat. The Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets in the first round.

The Celtics have been the NBA’s best team since the start of the New Year. Boston had the league’s best defensive rating in the regular season. The team defended Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo as well as could’ve been expected.

The series could be decided by which team has the best player on the court. Jimmy Butler leads the Heat with 28.7 points, 5.4 assists and 2.1 steals per game in the playoffs. Jayson Tatum has emerged as one of the NBA’s top superstars, averaging 28.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game this postseason.

Kyle Lowry is expected to miss the start of the series. Miami's point guard only played in Game 3 and Game 4 of the second round because of a hamstring injury.

Marcus Smart is questionable for Game 1 with a foot injury. Robert Williams is available for Boston after missing three straight games with knee soreness.

The Celtics won the season series with the Heat 2-1.