Complete NBA Draft Lottery Odds

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2019 NBA Draft Board
The first round draft board is seen during the 2019 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 20, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.

The future of several franchises could change dramatically Tuesday night with the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery. Fourteen teams have a chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, though some have much better odds than others of getting the top selection.

The Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic all rank first with a 14% chance to win the draft lottery. They finished with the three worst records in the regular season to earn the best odds of drafting a potential franchise player.

Houston was dead last in the NBA standings with a 17-55 record. As a result, the Rockets can’t finish worse than fifth in the lottery. Ending up with the No. 5 overall selection would be a disaster for Houston because the pick would then go to the Oklahoma City Thunder, stemming from the 2019 Chris Paul-for-Russell Westbrook trade.

The Rockets have a 47.9% chance of finishing fifth in the lottery. If Houston doesn’t get a top-four pick, it will have essentially tanked its season for no reason.

Oklahoma City could end Tuesday night with a pair of top-five picks. The Thunder have an 11.5% chance to win the lottery after finishing tied for the NBA’s fourth-worst record. 

 

 

The Cleveland Cavaliers also have an 11.5% chance to get the first overall pick. Cleveland won the lottery in 2013 and 2014. The Cavs also won the 2003 lottery, allowing them to draft LeBron James.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 9% chance to win the lottery for a second straight year. The Toronto Raptors have a 7.5% chance to win the lottery, just two years removed from winning the championship.

If the Minnesota pick falls outside of the top three, it will be conveyed to the Golden State Warriors. The Timberwolves have a 27.6% chance to keep their selection.

Golden State can potentially get the top selection with its own pick, though the Warriors rank dead last with a 0.5% chance of winning the lottery. If Klay Thompson can return to his old form after missing consecutive seasons with injuries, the Warriors could become 2022 championship contenders.

The Warriors were defeated in the final game of the play-in tournament. Stephen Curry finished third in the 2021 MVP voting.

The Chicago Bulls’ chances of getting the No. 1 pick are 4.5%. In 2008, the Bulls won the lottery with less than a 2% chance to do so. Chicago drafted Derrick Rose, who won the NBA MVP award three years later.

Chicago will only keep its pick if it lands in the top four. Otherwise, it will be conveyed to Orlando as part of the Nikola Vucevic trade that the two teams executed in March. The Bulls have a 20.2% chance to keep their selection.

The Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans also have a 4.5% chance to win the lottery. No team has made worse use of its lottery picks over the last 14 years than the Kings, during which Sacramento has zero playoff appearances. New Orleans won the 2019 lottery and selected Zion Williamson.

The Charlotte Hornets have a 1.8% chance to win the lottery after losing in the first round of the play-in tournament. The San Antonio Spurs have a 1.7% chance after their season ended in the same fashion.

The Indiana Pacers came up short in the second round of the play-in tournament, ending their streak of five straight playoff appearances. They have a 1% chance to win the lottery.

Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham is widely projected to be the first player taken in the draft.


2019 NBA Draft Board

Photo: Getty Images/Sarah Stier

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