Chiefs Barely Favored Against Bills

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen waves to fans after the Bills' 38-20 NFL victory over the Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills features the smallest point spread in the 2022 NFL divisional playoffs. The Bills are barely an underdog on the road, given a better chance to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium than any opponent in Patrick Mahomes’ career as Kansas City’s starting quarterback.

The latest betting odds at various sportsbooks have Kansas City favored by just 1.5 points over the visiting Bills. The line opened at 2.5 points, but it’s since moved toward Buffalo.

The game has a betting total of 54.5, easily the highest over/under of the weekend.

Mahomes has never been a home underdog since becoming Kansas City’s starter. In 37 games played at home, Mahomes and the Chiefs had always been favored by at least two points.

If the Bills beat the Chiefs, it will hardly be considered a big upset. Buffalo has +105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win straight up. The Chiefs are only -120 betting favorites.

The Chiefs are down to 1.5-point favorites over the Bills at multiple sportsbooks.

With Patrick Mahomes as the starter, Kansas City has never been less than a 2.5-point favorite at home (37 games, including playoffs), according to @ESPNStatsInfo.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) January 19, 2022

.@BuffaloBills moved from 2.5 to 1.5 at Chiefs.

Bills 120 to 105 moneyline.

cc @arielhelwani
— John Ewing _ (@johnewing) January 19, 2022

The odds are reflective of Buffalo’s recent hot streak. The Bills ended the regular season with four straight wins, all of which came by at least 12 points. In the wild-card round, Buffalo defeated the New England Patriots 47-17 in one of the most dominant performances in playoff history.

The Bills had no trouble beating the Chiefs when they visited Kansas City in Week 5 of the regular season. Buffalo won 38-20, leading by double digits for the final 31 minutes game time. Josh Allen had 374 combined passing and rushing yards, four touchdowns and no turnovers. Mahomes was limited to 272 yards on 54 attempts and a 70.9 passer rating with two interceptions.

It was a much different story in the 2021 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs beat the visiting Bills 38-24, and it was Kansas City that held a two-score lead for most of the contest. Mahomes completed 76.3% of his passes for 325 yards and three touchdowns. Allen was sacked four times.

Mahomes is 30-7 at home. The quarterback has a 6-1 playoff record at Arrowhead Stadium with 20 touchdown passes and two interceptions. Mahomes’ only loss was an overtime defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots in the 2019 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs were favored by three points in that contest.

Kansas City trounced the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 in the wild-card round as 12.5-point favorites.

Allen is 0-2 in road playoff games. Buffalo’s last road playoff victory came 29 years ago.

The three other divisional playoff games all feature a point spread of at least a field goal.