Australian dollar coin
A one Australian dollar coin is seen in this picture illustration taken in Sydney, Australia, July 29, 2015. Reuters/David Gray

Bell FX Currency Outlook: With Thanksgiving today the US effectively out for the rest of the week, and with little to note in
Europe tonight, Asia-Pacific markets look like being left to their own devices.

Australia: Today sees the fourth estimate for 2015-16 non-mining business capex intentions. This provides an estimate of capital expenditure for the September quarter but perhaps more importantly an updated estimate of planned capital expenditure for the year ahead. The first three estimates showed investment spending plans were very weak. Expect only a modest upward revision today to the non-mining capex outlook. Although still a weak result, this would be the second consecutive upgrade, and would provide further evidence that the outlook for investment is slowly improving. For the RBA, the capex release has taken on a little less importance recently given the strength in jobs growth.

Majors: GBP strengthened as the autumn fiscal update showed higher UK growth forecasts. EUR weakened to a new seven month low as the ECB FSR showed increased risks from low inflation and EM Asia. The USD was steady even though there was a lot of US data overnight in advance of the Thanksgiving holidays. An increase in personal income not translating to spending and weaker core PCE inflation. Michigan consumer confidence was revised down. Durable and capital goods orders increased
along with the Markit service sector PMI and housing. While overall it was a mixed bag, the data were mostly close to expectations, so market reactions were limited. In Europe, downbeat comments regarding the euro area inflation outlook from ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio reinforced expectations of additional policy accommodation at next week’s ECB meeting.

Economic Calendar 26 NOV

  • NZ Trade Balance Oct
  • AU Private Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Q3
  • EC M3 Money Supply Oct
  • GE GfK Consumer Confidence Dec

BellFx

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