Australian dollar coin
A one Australian dollar coin is seen in this picture illustration taken in Sydney, Australia, July 29, 2015. Reuters/David Gray

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has pushed through USD 0.7600 as yesterday’s unemployment data and the FOMC’s interest rate position maintains AUD momentum.

Australia: The AUD is currently trading around 0.7630, just off its overnight highs. As stated above, yesterday’s employment data was mostly positive, with the headline rate declining 0.2% to 5.8%. This saw further buying in the AUD, which is now up 2 cents (to a 9 month high) since the dovish comments out of the FOMC meeting in the early hours yesterday. Looking further into the data shows employment growth has slowed, rising only 0.3k (+13.5k expected). The stalling in employment growth likely reflects some payback following the exceptional strength recorded towards the end of 2015. Nonetheless, measured employment growth still averaged a solid 19k in the six months to February. It is a quiet day for economic news; RBA Luci Ellis is due to speak at a Risk conference in Sydney and the title of her speech is “Booms, Cycles and Risk Appetite”, while in China there is the release of the house price index.

Majors: The USD has lost 1.01% over the past 24hrs, its biggest one day drop in almost 4 years. In G10 currencies, the NZD is at the top of the leader board. The Kiwi is up almost 2% against the USD, boosted by yesterday’s stronger than expected Q4 GDP figures. Of the majors, GBP has performed relatively well. The BoE left its policy rate at 0.5% as expected, but the minutes dampened speculation that its next move is likely to be a cut. US data was mostly better than expected, but it did little to stem the fall in the USD. Jobless claims printed at 265k vs 268kconcensus. JOLTs job openings came in better than expected and a very strong Philly Fed survey for March pointed to a recovery in the US manufacturing sector (in line with the Empire survey from the other week). Also the stronger USD has effectively triggered a repricing in commodities (USD denominated). WTI oil is back above the $40 mark for the first time since 4 December 15, gold is 2% and iron ore is up 4.7%, ending the day at $56. Tonight the major data releases include German PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment and Fed members Dudley and Rosengren are speaking.

Economic Calendar 18 MAR

  • AU RBA’s Ellis Speech in Sydney
  • CH Property Prices Feb
  • US Uni of Michigan Sentiment Mar
  • US Uni of Michigan 5-10 Year Inflation Mar

Bell Fx

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